Way Too Early 2023-2024 Yale Preview

In the wake of their third Ivy League regular season championship in four seasons, Yale’s season would have been deemed a success for many mid-major programs, but after their loss to Princeton on Princeton’s home court in the final of the Ivy Tournament, followed by a first round oust at Vanderbilt in the NIT, best guess is that head coach James Jones and his players wanted more.

That is because over the last decade, Jones has helped transform the Yale basketball program into arguably the best in the Ivy: case in point, since the 2014-15 season Yale has earned five Ivy League regular season championships and three tournament selections.

Considering that many of Yale’s best players this year were sophomores and juniors, Yale’s championship expectations are expected to continue next season as the Bulldogs are projected to have one of, if not the best team in the Ivy next season.

It starts with this year’s starting lineup: four of the team’s five starters were sophomores and juniors, led by junior power forward Matt Knowling whose efficient post play (13.6p, 2.4a, 1.4 TO, 63.7 2p%) is the front and center of opponents’ game plan.

Fellow junior August Mahoney finished the season with a scoring average nearly tripling his previous season high, averaging 10.9 points, 1.9 three pointers made and with incredible efficiency (56.3 2p%, 46.7 3p%, 93.1 ft%). According to KenPom, Mahoney’s 129.9 offensive rating was good for fifteenth in the nation.

Sophomores filled the remainder of the two backcourt spots with Yale’s second leading scorer John Poulakidas bringing shot-making ability, creating offense on his own inside the arc while providing efficiency in the perimeter and on the charity stripe (12.0p, 2.2 3PM, 40.1 3p%, 81.0 ft%).

Point guard duties were shared between sophomores Bez Mbeng and Yassine Gharram, who provided Yale with two aggressive defenders with enough length to guard multiple positions. Gharram is more of a pass-first option while Mbeng has made strides increasing his scoring (10.4 ppg), ability to break down defenses and improve his perimeter shot (26.9 3p% to 32.3 3p%).

While the guard position looks set for 2023-24, freshman Devon Arlington and incoming freshman Trevor Mullin were highly recruited out of high school, each earning more than ten offers during their recruitment.

Like Mbeng and Gharram, the 6'3 Arlington possesses intriguing length at the point guard position and finished his high school career at San Marcos as the school's all-time leading scorer finishing with 2,035 career points.

At St. Sebastian's, Mullin also finished his high school career as the program's all-time leading scorer. Like Poulakidas and Mahoney, Mullin has incredible range and profiles as an undersized off-ball guard akin to all-time Yale great Azar Swain.

If Yale is able to retain their key sophomores and juniors, the Bulldogs will return all of their best weapons, save for the departing senior bigs Isaiah Kelly and EJ Jarvis. The duo provided a yin yang to the five spot, with Jarvis averaging 11.3 ppg in just 22.4 mpg and Kelly touted as one of the best defenders in the Ivy.

As of today, the best bet to take over at the big are freshman Danny Wolf and sophomore Jack Molloy. Listed at 7’0 250, Wolf was a McDonald’s All-American Game nominee and brings classic, low-post rim protection, averaging 2.1 blocks-per-40 minutes played in limited action. Surprisingly, for a player his size, 40% of his shot attempts were from three and Wolf connected at 30.4%. In limited time so far, Molloy is best  profiled as a stretch forward, shooting threes in 60% of his shot attempts, but he needs to improve his accuracy (23.9 3P%). 

Junior forward Yussif Basa-Ama has played less than 300 minutes across his two seasons at Yale, but could parlay his athleticism and defensive versatility to more of a featured role next season.

Picking Yale after previously receiving offers from Houston, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas A&M and others, incoming 6’9 freshman forward Samson Aletan possesses massive long-term potential and is a darkhorse candidate to secure a significant role immediately thanks to his high-major caliber athleticism, projectable frame and work ethic that should fit in perfectly with Yale’s tough defensive mindset. 

Of course, these projections all depend on the omnipresence of the portal, but on the eve of March Madness, Yale is the best bet to make the tournament next season. 

Vanderbilt Scouting Report Prior to Tonight's NIT Matchup Against Yale

 Vanderbilt: 20-14 (most wins since 14-15 season)

KenPom Rating: 80

NET ranking: 81

10-2 in the last 12 vs 10-12 in the first 22

Best win:

• 2/8/23 66-65 over Tennessee

Worst Loss:

• 12/9/23 64-62 vs Grambling State

OFFENSE: 22nd in KenPom efficiency

• 46th in lowest turnover rate

• 60th in 3GA/FGA (42.2%), but 34.2% from three (168th); but lower ratios expected with Robbins and Stute out.

• 100th in offensive rebounding rate

• 144th in FTA/FGA rate (32.3%)

• 208th in FT% (71.2%)

• 233rd in 2p% (49.2%)

• 278th in A/FGM (46.9%)

• 286th in offensive pace (18.6 seconds/possession)

DEFENSE: 166th in KenPom efficiency

• 47th in 3P% defense (31.4%)

• 48th in block rate (but no Liam Robbins)

• 70th in quickest length of avg. opp. Possession (17.1 seconds)

• 184th in 2p% defense (50.4%)

• 201st in preventing FTA rate (31.7%)

• 310th in defensive rebounding rate

• 320th in steal rate

Projected Starting Lineup:

Ezra Manjon - 5’11 170 3Y - 9.9p, 2.7r, 3.9a, 51.0 2p%, 6-29 from 3, 71.4 ft%, 0.9s, least efficient defender

Tyrin Lawrence - 6’4 140 3Y - 12.5p, 4.1r, 1.8a, 0.9s, 56.2 2p%, 35.2 3p%, ~¼ of FGAs from 3, 3.8 FTA, 73.0 ft%, 4th most efficient defender

Jordan Wright - 6’6 226 4Y - 10.8p, 5.1r, 2.0a, 1.0s, 46.3 2p%, 1.2 3PM, 33.3 3p%, 2.6 FTA, 76.3 ft%, 3rd most efficient defender

Colin Smith - 6’8 215 FR - 4.6p, 2.5r, 39.2 2p%, ~2/3rds of FGAs from deep, #1 most efficient defender

Quentin Millora-Brown - 6’10 230 4Y - 3.4p, 3.9r, 51.3 2p%, 1-3 from 3, 0.6b

Top Bench Options:

Trey Thomas - 6’0 160 3Y - 6.1p, 1.7r, 31.3 3p%, ~85% of FGAs from 3, #2 least efficient defender

Paul Lewis - 6’2 170 FR - 3.0p, 40.6 3p%, 60% FGAs from 3

Lee Dort - 6’10 255 FR - 1.9p, 2.3r, 68.4 fg%, 0.8b

Injured/Out:

Liam Robbins (leg)- 7’0 235 5Y: 15.0p, 6.8r, 3.2b, 50.4 fg%, 23.8 mpg, #3 most efficient defender

Myles Stute (portal) - 6’7 215 3Y: 8.4p, 4.6r, 2.2 3PM, 36.1 3p%, 25.7 mpg

Emmanuel Ansong (non-injury) - 6’4 194 4Y: 42.9 fg%, 10.4 mpg

Malik Dia (questionable) - 6’9 240 FR: 36.7 3p%, 9.1 mpg

With Liam Robbins out for the year and Myles Stute hitting the portal yesterday, tonight’s matchup looks very different today than it would have in February. 

Out of the four potential players out today, Robbins is the biggest impact whose 14.6% block rate ranks second highest in the nation. In comparison, current starting center Millora-Brown has a block rate of 3.5% while reserve freshman center Lee Dort possesses a 12.8% block rate, impressive, though in limited time. 

That being said, the absence of Robbins greatly affects the defensive strategy on how to best guard Yale’s star Matt Knowling, who does most of his work below the foul line. With Stute out, freshman Colin Smith will likely match up with Knowling and he has filled in and provided the Commodores with perimeter shooting and defensive versatility.

With its remaining players, Vanderbilt’s offensive attack will be centered around their starting backcourt of Manjon, Lawrence and Wright. Yale’s sophomore point guard Bez Mbeng is arguably their best defensive guard and is likely to be assigned with shadowing Manjon, causing Vanderbilt’s halfcourt offense to stall and prevent Manjon’s interior scoring propensity. 

Considering that Vanderbilt’s reworked starting lineup features just two perimeter pieces (Wright and Smith), Yale’s defensive anchor EJ Jarvis should be able to hold down the fort against Vanderbilt’s interior attack.

Vanderbilt is lacking forward depth, so if Yale needs to play small, head coach James Jones has recently fielded four-guard lineups during Knowling’s most recent injury absence, featuring Mbeng and backup point guard Yassine Gharram sharing the court along with shooters August Mahoney and John Poulakidas. 

Looking across prognosticators, tonight’s game has a slight Vanderbilt lean, but considering the Commodores’ reworked lineup that is missing two key starters, Yale has a very good chance to do what they do best: defend, prevent second-chance points and shoot efficiently in halfcourt situations.

A-Sun 2023 Championship Preview - Liberty @ Kennesaw State

 #2 Liberty at #1 Kennesaw State - Sunday - 3 PM - ESPN2

First matchup of the season: Kennesaw State Beat Liberty 88-81 on 2/16/23 led by 59 combined points by Youngblood, Stroud, Burden and all starters in double-digits. The Owls shot a lights out 64.9 2p% and 40.0 3p%. Liberty’s star Darius McGhee scored 43, but the Flames’ defense couldn’t stop the Owls’ hot shooting.

LIBERTY AT A GLANCE

26-7 (15-3 in ASUN) - 45th in KenPom Efficency (48th in offense; 54th in defense, the program’s highest efficiency ratings all-time)

Throughout McKay’s ten seasons at Liberty, his teams have been known to: 

• Play slowwwwly (335th in offensive tempo this season)

• Shoot well (top-20 in eFG% in each of the last five seasons

• Shoot a ton of threes (top-16 in 3PA/FGA% in each of the last three seasons)

• Prevent turnovers (top-50 in turnover rate in three of the last four seasons) 

• Defense is known for rebounding (top 20 in defensive rebounding rates in each of the last four seasons)

• Force ISO situations (top 50 in preventing assist rate in four of the last five seasons)

KENNESAW STATE AT A GLANCE:

25-8 (15-3 in ASUN) - Most wins in program history

131st in KenPom Efficency (149th in offense; 122nd in defense, the program’s highest efficiency ratings all-time)

Starting with an abysmal 1-28 first season to 25-8 this year, the Owls’ win totals have improved in each of head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim’s four seasons at Kennesaw State. This season, Kennesaw State is known to:

• Shoot well from deep (38th in the nation with a 37.0 3p%), but are not reliant on threes (37.2% 3PM/FGM is 12th in the conference)

• Get to the line (#1 in the A-Sun in FTA/FGA ~ 36.5%)

• Share the ball well (3rd in the A-Sun in A/FGM (53.9%)

• Generate steals (first in the A-Sun in steal rate (11.1%)

• Defend the paint (3rd in A-Sun with a 48.1 opp. 2P%)

• Have trouble defending the perimeter (11th in A-SUN in 3PA/FGA and 10th opp. 3p% ~ 36.0%)

• Foul a ton (34.6 FTA/FGA is second highest rate in conference)

POSITION BY POSITION MATCHUP

It starts with the guards as Liberty’s fifth-year star Darius McGhee (22.7p, 4.6 3PM, 41.1 3p%) will be matched up defensively with Kennesaw State’s two-way senior point guard Terrell Burden (13.3p, 4.2a) who ranks in the top-five in the A-Sun in assist rate, steal rate, free throw rate. 

A viral sensation for years, the addition of Liberty freshman point guard Colin Porter (7.8p, 3.8a, 40.5 3p%) has allowed McGhee to play off-the-ball whenever they share the floor together (about 27 minutes per game). Amongst conference mates, Porter ranks third in steal rate and tenth in assist rate. 

Starting for Kennesaw State for the last six games, fifth-year combo guard Spencer Rodgers has shot 41.4 3p% in conference play and provides size at the point-guard position (6’4 188) when Burden is on bench.

Injured in the last matchup, Kennesaw State’s key bench piece is Kasen Jennings, a two-way off-ball guard who is shooting 40.5 3p% this season after 24.4% as a freshman.

Their highest ranked recruit from their vaunted 2020 recruiting class, Kennesaw State’s star junior wing Chris Youngblood (14.6p, 2.4 3p%, 41.5 3p%) is a physical (6’4 212) and versatile weapon who affects the offensive side of the floor in a variety of ways. 

Youngblood will be matched up against sophomore guard Joseph Venzant and junior wing Isiah Warfield, two of Liberty’s glue guys and best defenders. 

At just 6’3 170, Venzant holds his own at the 3 guard due to his impressive rebounding ability (ranks within the top-thirteen in the conference in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate) while the 6’5 180 Warfield, according to evanmiya.com, is the team’s most efficient defender, whose length and athletic ability allows him to defend multiple positions. 

Starting games at the 4 and the 5 this season, 6’7 220 senior combo forward Kyle Rode (highest assist rate on the team), is a smooth shooter on the perimeter (10.6p, 37.9 3p%) and can hold his own defensively at the 5 against smaller bigs. 

Today, however, Rode will start at the 4 and will match up against 6’6 196 junior Brandon Stroud, Kennesaw State’s defender and best defensive rebounder. 

The game’s best big is Kennesaw State’s Desmond Robinson, a 6’8 255 senior, whose efficient low-post play (56.1 2p%, 4th in offensive rebounding rate, 19th lowest TO rate in A-SUN) and capable rim-protection (6th best block rate in A-SUN) will make for a tough defensive assignment for Liberty’s Blake Preston and Shiloh Robinson.

Based on the matchups, stars McGhee, Rode and Youngblood will be guarded by some of their opponents’ best defenders while Kennesaw State’s Burden and Robinson will look to take advantage of possible defensive gaps. 

A lot of things went right for Kennesaw State's last matchup, especially outscoring Liberty 31-to-16 in the final ten minutes. It will be hard to imagine 169 total points scored tonight, but no matter who wins, expect the KSU Convocation Center to be the loudest it has been in its history.