#1 UConn
The reigning National Champions rightfully enter this year with title aspirations despite sharpshooter Jordan Hawkins, tough two-way center Adama Sanogo and defensive maestro Andre Jackson foregoing the remainder of their college eligibility to go pro.
Point guard Tristen Newton returns for his extra year of eligibility after finishing the year strongly averaging 11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 4.1 free throw attempts per game with a 39.3 3P% and 82.9 FT%, making him one of the better closers in the Big East. If he can improve his efficiency from inside the arc, he will take another step in his development.
With a three-point shot developing as part of his arsenal, sophomore 7’2 265 center Donovan Clingan is one of the most hyped breakout candidates in the nation after averaging 21.1 points, 17.1 rebounds and 5.5 blocks per 40 minutes in his freshman season behind Sanogo.
Ultra efficient sophomore power forward Alex Karaban is another underclassman looking to take a big step while Rutgers grad transfer Cam Spencer provides UConn with a big guard who can shoot, score, dish and generate turnovers.
Major minutes will be expected from UConn’s freshman class that unanimously ranks amongst the best in the nation. The headliner is 6’7 combo guard Stephon Castle, UConn’s first five-star recruit since Kemba Walker.
Castle, along with Newton and Spencer, provide UConn with a variety of playmakers in the starting lineup who look to parlay their 8th best assist-to-field goal ratio to another season of beautifully flowing offense.
Their frontcourt depth is unproven, but UConn, along with Marquette, Creighton and Villanova, is a great bet to finish the season atop the Big East.
#2 Providence
A new chapter begins for the Friars with former George Mason head coach Kim English taking over the helm from Providence native and long-term Friars head coach Ed Cooley, who is now replacing Patrick Ewing at Georgetown.
While the shocking news shook Friartown, it is fair to evaluate the Providence program under Cooley as consistently respectable, but unable to achieve a higher level of success after earning just one Sweet Sixteen in Cooley’s twelve season tenure.
Under English, there’s obvious risk in hiring a coach with just two years of head coaching experience, but his talents as a recruiter and a retainer of talent is clear after both of the program’s best returning players, unanimous All-Big East First Team selection Bryce Hopkins and Honorable Mention Devin Carter, chose to remain with the program.
Both Carter and Hopkins will lead the scoring attack while a trio of George Mason transfers will join English in Providence. Most notably, 6’9 grad transfer Josh Oduro is a versatile, two-way big and finished last year as an A-10 All-Conference First Team selection after averaging 15.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists and nearly a block per game.
Joining Oduro is Ticket Gaines, a 6’7 grad transfer who was George Mason’s best defender and provides good secondary three-level scoring and rebounding to either forward position. Sophomore 6’5 guard Justyn Fernandez brings upside as a former four-star recruit with exciting athleticism.
The biggest question for the Friars is whether sophomore Jayden Pierre is ready to step into the starting point guard role with last year’s starter Jared Bynum now at Stanford. Top-50 recruit Garwey Dual looks to become an immediate impact weapon in the backcourt, possibly to the tune of a starting role alongside Carter and Pierre.
The Big East is deep this year, but few new head coaches this year have weapons like Hopkins and Carter atop their depth chart, making a tournament appearance is a fair goal for the Friars this season.
#3 Yale
In the wake of their third Ivy League regular season championship in four seasons, Yale’s season would have been deemed a success for many mid-major programs, but after their loss to Princeton on Princeton’s home court in the final of the Ivy Tournament, followed by a first round oust at Vanderbilt in the NIT, best guess is that head coach James Jones and his players wanted more.
That is because over the last decade, Jones has helped transform the Yale basketball program into arguably the best in the Ivy: case in point, since the 2014-15 season Yale has earned five Ivy League regular season championships and three tournament selections.
Last year, considering that many of Yale’s best players were sophomores and juniors, Yale’s championship expectations will continue into this season as the Bulldogs are projected to have the best team in the Ivy.
The Bulldogs are led by senior power forward Matt Knowling, a unanimous First Team All-Ivy selection, whose efficient post play (13.6p, 2.4a, 1.4 TO, 63.7 2p%) is the front and center of opponents’ game plan.
Fellow senior August Mahoney finished the season with a scoring average nearly tripling his previous season high, averaging 10.9 points, 1.9 three pointers made and with incredible efficiency (56.3 2p%, 46.7 3p%, 93.1 ft%). According to KenPom, Mahoney’s 129.9 offensive rating was good for fifteenth in the nation.
Juniors will fill the remainder of the two backcourt spots with Yale’s second leading scorer John Poulakidas bringing shot-making ability, creating offense on his own inside the arc while providing efficiency in the perimeter and on the charity stripe (12.0p, 2.2 3PM, 40.1 3p%, 81.0 ft%).
Point guard duties will again be shared between juniors Bez Mbeng and Yassine Gharram, who provide Yale with two aggressive defenders and enough length to guard multiple positions. Gharram is more of a pass-first option while Mbeng, the Ivy Defensive Player of the Year, has made strides increasing his scoring (10.4 ppg), ability to break down defenses and improve his perimeter shot (26.9 3p% to 32.3 3p%).
The big question for Ivy is how will they best replace graduating forwards EJ Jarvis and Isaiah Kelly, but senior Yussif Basa-Ama, junior Jack Molloy, sophomore Danny Wolf and freshman Samson Aletan, the program’s highest-rated recruit in program history, will all compete for frontcourt minutes alongside Knowling.
#4 Vermont
Over the last two decades, the Vermont Catamounts have been a paragon of excellence in the America East with twelve regular season championships and nine tournament selections to their name. Focusing on just the last seven seasons, head coach John Becker has led the Catamounts through quite a run: seven consecutive regular season championships, four conference championships and two straight tournament selections.
However, with four fifth-year senior guards graduating, there is a lot of talent and leadership to replace: Kevin Roberson Player of the Year honoree Finn Sullivan, rebounding and assist leader Robin Duncan, leading scorer Dylan Penn and perimeter weapon Kameron Gibson.
While the bedrock of Vermont’s success is from Becker and his staff’s ability to develop homegrown talent, most of the available minutes from the departing backcourt quartet will be filled by fifth-year returnee Aaron Deloney (11.6 ppg, 40.3 3P%), sophomore TJ Hurley (5.1 ppg, 41.2 3P%) and the four transfer additions.
Junior TJ Long (Fairfield) and grad transfer Brenton Mills (Bowling Green) are perimeter threats while 6’5 senior Jace Roquemore (UC San Diego) and 6’4 senior Shamir Bogues (Tarleton State) are lengthy, versatile two-way options who are also capable distributors.
Vermont’s frontcourt, on the other hand, is flush with familiar faces: 6’8 sharpshooter Matt Veretto returns for his extra year of eligibility while the efficient three-level shooting and strong defensive rebounding 6’7 senior Nick Fiorillo looks to stay healthy after playing just 14 games last year. Junior 6’8 forward Ileri Ayo-Faleye is one of the team’s X-factors as his athleticism and length provides an enticing upside and dynamic wrinkle to the Catamount roster.
Despite the changes, expect the Catamounts to continue their trademark efficient offense and strong interior defense under Becker as Vermont is yet again the presumed favorite in the America East Conference.
#5 Boston College
Even though the ACC had a down season, Earl Grant should still be commended for finishing his second season at Chestnut Hill winning eight of their last fourteen games, which in turn helped the Golden Eagles finish with their best conference record in over a decade.
Fifth-year returnee Quinten Post, a 7’0 250 big who earned an ACC Honorable Mention selection after averaging 15.1 points-per-game and developed a legit perimeter game, is Boston College’s best returner while senior guard Jaeden Zackery is a safe bet to average double-digits per game.
For Boston College to take the next step, returning sophomores Devin McGlockton, Prince Aligbe, Donald Hand and Chas Kelly need to continue their development but Charleston Southern junior transfer Claudell Harris is expected to provide a jolt to the offense after averaging 17.4 points-per-game last season.
#6 Brown
While Yale is my expected champion in the Ivy, Brown will arguably be one of the biggest surprises in the Northeast mid-major scene. Mike Martin enters his twelve season leading the Bears in their “Bully Bull” style of play that centers around a tough, physical defense that rebounds hard and generates turnovers that leads to transition buckets.
What makes Brown special is that their core has now had three years to jell. Their winning formula centers around incoming junior guard Kino Lilly, a First Team All-Ivy selection and now arguably the most dangerous offensive dynamo in the league after averaging nearly seventeen points and three three-pointers per game with impressive shooting efficiency (48.3 2P%, 39.9 3P% and 82.9 FT%).
Surrounding Lilly are a bevy of physical, two-way yeomen led by senior forward Nana Owusu-Anane, senior wing Aaron Cooley and sophomore forward Kalu Anya. Some of Brown’s ceiling is hinged on the ability of senior guard Kimo Ferrari to step up in a scoring role after Paxson Wojcik graduated, taking his extra year of eligibility at North Carolina. However, Ferrari’s career 34.3 three-point percentage hints to a breakout year for the expected starting shooting guard.
To simplify it, Brown’s defense is rock solid — the question is whether they have enough scoring to truly threaten Yale for the Ivy title.
#7 Bryant
Ever since taking over the program prior to the start of the 2018-19 season, Jared Grasso’s Bryant Bulldogs are known for two things: a quick-paced, free-flowing offense and a liberal recruiting style that doesn’t believe that any athlete is out of reach.
That aggressive recruiting style has helped Bryant to build consistently talented teams, highlighted by a Northeast Conference Championship the year before their first season in the America East last season.
This season, expect a veteran rotation that will likely feature a starting lineup of interchangeable pieces whose height is somewhere between 6’4 and 6’7. Of the three America East teams on this list, Bryant is the only one that returns two All-Conference selections: Sherif Gross-Bullock and Earl Timberlake.
At 6’5 215, Gross-Bullock is the team’s de facto point wing, averaging 17.1 points, 2.2 three-pointers made and 2.8 assists per game while the 6’6 220 Earl Timberlake will be Bryant’s small ball five, averaging 13.8 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists last season. In addition to his talents on offense, Timberlake is one of the more switchable defenders on the roster and possesses comfort from the mid-range.
Amongst their other returning veteran rotation pieces, senior forward Kvonn Cramer does most of his work under the basket, fifth-year returnee Doug Edert stretches the floor, senior Tyler Brelsford brings shooting and distributing while senior Miles Latimer is an efficient wing who will look to convert threes more similar to his previous career average of 36.5% than his 24.2 3P% last season.
Even though last year’s #2 scorer Charles Pride transferred to St. Bonaventure, St. John’s transfer Rafael Pinzon could provide more versatility and balance offensive-centric Bulldogs. At 6’6, Pinzon played point guard in high school, has a career 36 3P% and has the athleticism and basketball IQ to develop into one of the best defenders in the league.
Transferring over from UMass Lowell, Connor Withers played a rotational stretch forward role last season, but was a full-time starter in his first two seasons before succumbing to an injury that caused him to miss almost all of the 2021-22 season. Averaging ten points, six rebounds and nearly two assists per game across his first two seasons, there is certainly upside potential for Withers to return back to a versatile, two-way secondary scorer this year.
If their defense can improve upon last year, Bryant certainly has the talent and athleticism to finish this season as conference champions.
#8 UMass Lowell
Last season, UMass Lowell had their best season in program history after finishing with 26-8 record and playing their way into the America East title game, losing to conference juggernauts Vermont, which parlayed with long time head coach Pat Duquette earning America East Coach of the Year honors in March and a contract extension in April.
Even with leading scorer Everette Hammond graduating, UMass Lowell expect again to rank as one of the best teams in the America East, led by their dynamic frontcourt of graduate 6’9 big Abdoul Karim Coulibaly (11.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 58.5 FG%, Second Team All-Conference selection) and 6’7 senior forward Max Brooks (8.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, All-Defensive Team selection).
In addition to Coulibaly, starting point guard Ayinde Hikim (10.6 points, 3.7 assists, 1.2 steals) returns for his extra year of eligibility while sharpshooter Yuri Covington (7.3 ppg, 40.0 3P%) will look to secure a starting backcourt spot vacated by Hammond.
With Duquette’s liberal rotations, there is room for the River Hawks’ transfer reinforcements to earn valuable minutes right away. All three are of the non-D1 variety with 6’1 senior JUCO guard Jordan Thompson (Northern Oklahoma Enid), 6’2 senior guard Andres Fulgencio (Bloomfield, D3) and 6’6 Xzavier Lino (Whitman, D3) all shot better than 36% from three last season as the River Hawks look to continue their excellent shooting from last season.
In what looks to be an improved conference, the River Hawks have the coaching and talent to contend in the America East.
#9 UMass
In his first foray to mid-major basketball after five seasons at Kansas State and ten seasons at South Carolina, veteran head coach Frank Martin transformed the UMass program into the type of team we typically see from Martin: quick pace, aggressive on the offensive boards and a consistent shot blocking threat.
However, that classic Frank Martin style did not immediately translate to wins as the Minutemen lost twelve of their last seventeen games, although injury woes to leading scorer and starting point guard Noah Fernandes was a major factor.
With six of last year’s top-eight scorers either graduating or transferring, this season senior forward Matt Cross is expected to lead the Minutemen along with two-way junior point guard Rahsool Diggins.
Earlier this summer, I wrote a longer piece on UMass’ New Look Frontcourt that will feature a mix of freshmen and transfer additions. St. Francis (PA) transfer Josh Cohen finished last season as the Northeast Conference Co-Player of the Year after the 6’10 senior averaged 21.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, after steadily improving as a low-post tactician and a high IQ facilitator from the elbow.
South Carolina transfer Daniel Hankins-Sanford is a 6’8 230 sophomore forward who was originally recruited by Frank Martin during his time in Columbia.
Hankins-Sanford’s ability to crash the boards on offense (15.4% offensive rebounding rate, 5.5 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes) plus his athletic frame meshes well with Martin’s offensive style that puts emphasis on tempo and rebounding.
The remainder of UMass’ rotations will consist mostly of underclassmen as UMass’ seven-man freshman class hint towards the team’s promising future, but probable need to take time to rebuild this season.
#10 Rhode Island
Archie Miller’s first season at Rhode Island was the program’s worst since Dan Hurley’s debut season in Kingston, but like Hurley’s tenure at Rhode Island, Rams fans hope that Miller’s slow debut will eventually build the program into a nationally ranked tournament contender.
The Rams’ biggest issue last season was their dreadfully inefficient offense that was mostly generating scoring chances through the hero ball of Ish Leggett, who is now at Pittsburgh, and second chance shots.
High Point transfer Jaden House (17.3 points, 3.2 assists, 6.9 free throw attempts) is a lot like Leggett: he creates his own offense, but at 6’4 201, House brings a layer of physicality that sets him apart. House’s backcourt mates will include Quinnipiac transfer Luis Kortright (10.3 points, 3.9 assists) and returning 6’5 sophomore Brandon Weston, who will look to take another step in his offensive development after a strong defensive season.
Bradley transfer Zek Montgomery is a 6’6 three-and-D specialist while JUCO additions Tyson Brown, a 6’9 junior, and Always Wright, a 6’3 junior were two of the most touted JUCO recruits this offseason.
Brown will look to team up with returning 6’10 junior Josaphat Bilau to create a steady tandem at the center position along with sharpshooting sophomore Rory Stewart, who is also expected to compete for the starting center role.
It is hard to expect a big jump for the Rams this season, but last offseason’s roster reset should help boost the offense.
No comments:
Post a Comment