Sunday, March 5, 2023

A-Sun 2023 Championship Preview - Liberty @ Kennesaw State

 #2 Liberty at #1 Kennesaw State - Sunday - 3 PM - ESPN2


First matchup of the season: Kennesaw State Beat Liberty 88-81 on 2/16/23 led by 59 combined points by Youngblood, Stroud, Burden and all starters in double-digits. The Owls shot a lights out 64.9 2p% and 40.0 3p%. Liberty’s star Darius McGhee scored 43, but the Flames’ defense couldn’t stop the Owls’ hot shooting.


LIBERTY AT A GLANCE


26-7 (15-3 in ASUN) - 45th in KenPom Efficency (48th in offense; 54th in defense, the program’s highest efficiency ratings all-time)


Throughout McKay’s ten seasons at Liberty, his teams have been known to: 

  • Play slowwwwly (335th in offensive tempo this season)

  • Shoot well (top-20 in eFG% in each of the last five seasons

  • Shoot a ton of threes (top-16 in 3PA/FGA% in each of the last three seasons)

  • Prevent turnovers (top-50 in turnover rate in three of the last four seasons) 

  • Defense is known for rebounding (top 20 in defensive rebounding rates in each of the last four seasons)

  • Force ISO situations (top 50 in preventing assist rate in four of the last five seasons)


KENNESAW STATE AT A GLANCE:


25-8 (15-3 in ASUN) - Most wins in program history

131st in KenPom Efficency (149th in offense; 122nd in defense, the program’s highest efficiency ratings all-time)


Starting with an abysmal 1-28 first season to 25-8 this year, the Owls’ win totals have improved in each of head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim’s four seasons at Kennesaw State. This season, Kennesaw State is known to:

  • Shoot well from deep (38th in the nation with a 37.0 3p%), but are not reliant on threes (37.2% 3PM/FGM is 12th in the conference)

  • Get to the line (#1 in the A-Sun in FTA/FGA ~ 36.5%)

  • Share the ball well (3rd in the A-Sun in A/FGM (53.9%)

  • Generate steals (first in the A-Sun in steal rate (11.1%)

  • Defend the paint (3rd in A-Sun with a 48.1 opp. 2P%)

  • Have trouble defending the perimeter (11th in A-SUN in 3PA/FGA and 10th opp. 3p% ~ 36.0%)

  • Foul a ton (34.6 FTA/FGA is second highest rate in conference)


POSITION BY POSITION MATCHUP


It starts with the guards as Liberty’s fifth-year star Darius McGhee (22.7p, 4.6 3PM, 41.1 3p%) will be matched up defensively with Kennesaw State’s two-way senior point guard Terrell Burden (13.3p, 4.2a) who ranks in the top-five in the A-Sun in assist rate, steal rate, free throw rate. 


A viral sensation for years, the addition of Liberty freshman point guard Colin Porter (7.8p, 3.8a, 40.5 3p%) has allowed McGhee to play off-the-ball whenever they share the floor together (about 27 minutes per game). Amongst conference mates, Porter ranks third in steal rate and tenth in assist rate. 


Starting for Kennesaw State for the last six games, fifth-year combo guard Spencer Rodgers has shot 41.4 3p% in conference play and provides size at the point-guard position (6’4 188) when Burden is on bench.


Injured in the last matchup, Kennesaw State’s key bench piece is Kasen Jennings, a two-way off-ball guard who is shooting 40.5 3p% this season after 24.4% as a freshman.


Their highest ranked recruit from their vaunted 2020 recruiting class, Kennesaw State’s star junior wing Chris Youngblood (14.6p, 2.4 3p%, 41.5 3p%) is a physical (6’4 212) and versatile weapon who affects the offensive side of the floor in a variety of ways. 


Youngblood will be matched up against sophomore guard Joseph Venzant and junior wing Isiah Warfield, two of Liberty’s glue guys and best defenders. 


At just 6’3 170, Venzant holds his own at the 3 guard due to his impressive rebounding ability (ranks within the top-thirteen in the conference in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate) while the 6’5 180 Warfield, according to evanmiya.com, is the team’s most efficient defender, whose length and athletic ability allows him to defend multiple positions. 


Starting games at the 4 and the 5 this season, 6’7 220 senior combo forward Kyle Rode (highest assist rate on the team), is a smooth shooter on the perimeter (10.6p, 37.9 3p%) and can hold his own defensively at the 5 against smaller bigs. 


Today, however, Rode will start at the 4 and will match up against 6’6 196 junior Brandon Stroud, Kennesaw State’s defender and best defensive rebounder. 


The game’s best big is Kennesaw State’s Desmond Robinson, a 6’8 255 senior, whose efficient low-post play (56.1 2p%, 4th in offensive rebounding rate, 19th lowest TO rate in A-SUN) and capable rim-protection (6th best block rate in A-SUN) will make for a tough defensive assignment for Liberty’s Blake Preston and Shiloh Robinson.


Based on the matchups, stars McGhee, Rode and Youngblood will be guarded by some of their opponents’ best defenders while Kennesaw State’s Burden and Robinson will look to take advantage of possible defensive gaps. 


A lot of things went right for Kennesaw State's last matchup, especially outscoring Liberty 31-to-16 in the final ten minutes. It will be hard to imagine 169 total points scored tonight, but no matter who wins, expect the KSU Convocation Center to be the loudest it has been in its history.

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