Vanderbilt: 20-14 (most wins since 14-15 season)
KenPom Rating: 80
NET ranking: 81
10-2 in the last 12 vs 10-12 in the first 22
Best win:
2/8/23 66-65 over Tennessee
Worst Loss:
12/9/23 64-62 vs Grambling State
OFFENSE: 22nd in KenPom efficiency
46th in lowest turnover rate
60th in 3GA/FGA (42.2%), but 34.2% from three (168th); but lower ratios expected with Robbins and Stute out.
100th in offensive rebounding rate
144th in FTA/FGA rate (32.3%)
208th in FT% (71.2%)
233rd in 2p% (49.2%)
278th in A/FGM (46.9%)
286th in offensive pace (18.6 seconds/possession)
DEFENSE: 166th in KenPom efficiency
47th in 3P% defense (31.4%)
48th in block rate (but no Liam Robbins)
70th in quickest length of avg. opp. Possession (17.1 seconds)
184th in 2p% defense (50.4%)
201st in preventing FTA rate (31.7%)
310th in defensive rebounding rate
320th in steal rate
Projected Starting Lineup:
Ezra Manjon - 5’11 170 3Y - 9.9p, 2.7r, 3.9a, 51.0 2p%, 6-29 from 3, 71.4 ft%, 0.9s, least efficient defender
Tyrin Lawrence - 6’4 140 3Y - 12.5p, 4.1r, 1.8a, 0.9s, 56.2 2p%, 35.2 3p%, ~¼ of FGAs from 3, 3.8 FTA, 73.0 ft%, 4th most efficient defender
Jordan Wright - 6’6 226 4Y - 10.8p, 5.1r, 2.0a, 1.0s, 46.3 2p%, 1.2 3PM, 33.3 3p%, 2.6 FTA, 76.3 ft%, 3rd most efficient defender
Colin Smith - 6’8 215 FR - 4.6p, 2.5r, 39.2 2p%, ~2/3rds of FGAs from deep, #1 most efficient defender
Quentin Millora-Brown - 6’10 230 4Y - 3.4p, 3.9r, 51.3 2p%, 1-3 from 3, 0.6b
Top Bench Options:
Trey Thomas - 6’0 160 3Y - 6.1p, 1.7r, 31.3 3p%, ~85% of FGAs from 3, #2 least efficient defender
Paul Lewis - 6’2 170 FR - 3.0p, 40.6 3p%, 60% FGAs from 3
Lee Dort - 6’10 255 FR - 1.9p, 2.3r, 68.4 fg%, 0.8b
Injured/Out:
Liam Robbins (leg)- 7’0 235 5Y: 15.0p, 6.8r, 3.2b, 50.4 fg%, 23.8 mpg, #3 most efficient defender
Myles Stute (portal) - 6’7 215 3Y: 8.4p, 4.6r, 2.2 3PM, 36.1 3p%, 25.7 mpg
Emmanuel Ansong (non-injury) - 6’4 194 4Y: 42.9 fg%, 10.4 mpg
Malik Dia (questionable) - 6’9 240 FR: 36.7 3p%, 9.1 mpg
With Liam Robbins out for the year and Myles Stute hitting the portal yesterday, tonight’s matchup looks very different today than it would have in February.
Out of the four potential players out today, Robbins is the biggest impact whose 14.6% block rate ranks second highest in the nation. In comparison, current starting center Millora-Brown has a block rate of 3.5% while reserve freshman center Lee Dort possesses a 12.8% block rate, impressive, though in limited time.
That being said, the absence of Robbins greatly affects the defensive strategy on how to best guard Yale’s star Matt Knowling, who does most of his work below the foul line. With Stute out, freshman Colin Smith will likely match up with Knowling and he has filled in and provided the Commodores with perimeter shooting and defensive versatility.
With its remaining players, Vanderbilt’s offensive attack will be centered around their starting backcourt of Manjon, Lawrence and Wright. Yale’s sophomore point guard Bez Mbeng is arguably their best defensive guard and is likely to be assigned with shadowing Manjon, causing Vanderbilt’s halfcourt offense to stall and prevent Manjon’s interior scoring propensity.
Considering that Vanderbilt’s reworked starting lineup features just two perimeter pieces (Wright and Smith), Yale’s defensive anchor EJ Jarvis should be able to hold down the fort against Vanderbilt’s interior attack.
Vanderbilt is lacking forward depth, so if Yale needs to play small, head coach James Jones has recently fielded four-guard lineups during Knowling’s most recent injury absence, featuring Mbeng and backup point guard Yassine Gharram sharing the court along with shooters August Mahoney and John Poulakidas.
Looking across prognosticators, tonight’s game has a slight Vanderbilt lean, but considering the Commodores’ reworked lineup that is missing two key starters, Yale has a very good chance to do what they do best: defend, prevent second-chance points and shoot efficiently in halfcourt situations.
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