Faced With Injuries, Pitino is Reimagining Iona's Identity

Osborn Shema on Rick Pitino’s vaunted full court match up press is a revelation watching live. The 7’0 220 senior is blessed with seemingly limitless length while his quick twitch footwork is a nod to his soccer playing days in his home country of Rwanda. 

Faced with injury woes to Iona forwards Quinn Slazinski (out for the year with an ankle injury) and Michael Jefferson (missed last seven games with an undisclosed injury), Pitino’s most recent starting lineup featured four guards and junior big Nelly Junior Joseph, partially to help preserve the energy of Shema, the face of Iona’s press.

Hosting Quinnipiac in their regular season rematch, Pitino’s reluctance to showcase the press was a major factor in Quinnipiac’s 45-28 halftime lead.

In his post-game presser, Pitino, via Jaden Daly, admitted: “I’ve been handcuffed a little bit with all the injuries with pressing, and I had to wait more for the latter stages of the second half to do it, but that was a gutty performance. This was an incredible comeback…I told them, possession by possession wins this game.”

With Slazinski out for the year and Jefferson injured, Pitino is coming to terms with the current identity of Iona: a guard-centric team anchored by bigs Junior Joseph and Shema.

Ideally, however and forced to do so on Sunday, Pitino would likely prefer not to have both bigs on the court for 33 minutes. 

At the forward position, there are a trio of young options who could provide regular blow for Iona’s bigs, but none have yet to seize the opportunity.

Freshman forward Sadiku Ibine Ayo has played eight or less minutes in each of the last four games, but showed promising, physical two-way potential playing at Our Savior Lutheran while freshman big Silas Sunday has shown promise on the low block, but needs to develop his footwork on defense. Another freshman forward, Keither Florence, is currently more ready on the offensive end, but needs more tutelage learning Iona’s defensive system.

Until Jefferson returns, that leaves the uber-athletic fifth-year senior Berrick JeanLouis as Iona’s most consistent bet to earn more playing time at the 4, as he started Sunday’s game alongside Junior Joseph in the frontcourt.

Forced to play smaller lineups has allowed freshman guard Cruz Davis to impress in extended duty, starting five of the last eight games and averaging 9.9 points in that span. 

Iona’s roster and rotations look quite different today than they did in November. While Iona is lacking healthy veteran frontcourt depth, the Gaels have a wealth of backcourt weapons that redefine Iona’s attack throughout the remainder of the season and, expected by the team and its ravenous fans, in March Madness. 

Kennesaw State Admist an Absurd Program Transformation Lead by the Recruiting Class of 2020

 It started in the summer of 2020 during a cursory scroll on 247 Sports’ recruiting rankings for the class of 2020. After browsing the top fifty classes and clicking the ‘load more’ link, one name stood out amongst a crowd of Big East, Big Ten and SEC schools: Kennesaw State.

Somewhat baffled, I explored their 66th ranked recruiting class led by three-star high school guards Chris Youngblood, Brandon Stroud and Kasen Jennings and junior college transfer Spencer Rodgers, a strong recruiting class that somehow was borne from Kennesaw’s State 0-16 Atlantic Sun conference record in Amir Abdur-Rahim’s first season replacing veteran coach Al Skinner’s 6-26 record the year prior. 

Staying in state, Youngblood and Stroud were signed out of East Coweta High in Sharpsburg and Jennings played at the Heritage School in Newnan. Rodgers played his high school ball at Mountain View, making the homegrown quarter all playing within an hour drive from Kennesaw State. 

Their first season together yielded a 5-19 overall record while the next season finished with a promising 7-9 slate during conference play and a first round victory over Eastern Kentucky in the ASUN conference tournament.

This season’s 15-6 record and 7-1 start in conference play makes their 2019-20 season seem like a distant memory and the 2020 recruiting class is a major contributor to the program’s transformation: Youngblood, Stroud, Jennings and Rodgers all average at least twenty four minutes per game and have started a combined 61 games.

The quartet also exemplifies the style of play that has driven the team’s success: moving the ball well to find high percentage shots and an aggressive defense predicated in causing turnovers.

Chris Youngblood, the pearl of the class, has started nearly every game of his career and amassed 1000 career points at the conclusion of Thursday’s matchup against Stetson, a feat achieved in just 74 career games. 

Currently sharing the conference lead with ASUN stalwarts Liberty, the two squads matchup for a huge conference showdown, their first, on Thursday, February 16th. 

Seton Hall Scouting Report Prior Their Wednesday Matchup Hosting UConn

 Seton Hall: 11-8

Kenpom Rating: 55

Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 5th

Best wins:

• 88-66 v #61 St. John’s

• Four Pirates w/ 14+ points, led by Dawes’ 22 points on 5-10 from 3

• 45-43 at #14 Rutgers

• Held Rutgers to 34.6 2p%, 29.4 3p% and 19 turnovers

Worst loss:

• 55-60 hosting #163 Siena

• Seton Hall was 1-9 from 3

Winners of three straight: Butler, Georgetown, DePaul, four of their last five after losing six of their last eight.

OFFENSE: 114th in efficiency

• 14th in FTA/FGA (42.0%)

• 78th in offensive rebounding rate (32.3%)

• 120th in offensive tempo (17 seconds/possession)

• 147th in A/FGM (52.1%)

• 185th in 2p% (49.8%)

• 269th in 3p% (31.8%)

• 274th in 3PA/FGA (34.3%)

• 302nd in turnover ratio (20.9%!!)

DEFENSE: 17th in efficiency 

• 9th in 3p% (28.0%)

• 56th in block % (11.8%)

• 58th in steal % (11.2%)

• 86th in 2p% (47.1%)

• 133rd in 3PA/FGA (36.4%)

• 192nd in FTA/FGA (31.3%)

• 232nd in defensive rebounding rate (29.9%)

• 283rd in A/FGM (55.6%)

Other fun facts:

• 22nd in D1 experience (2.92 years average)

• 41st in D1 bench minutes (37.5%)

• 25 bench points per game leads Big East

• Seton Hall is 11-1 when they keep their opponent under 70 points, 0-7 when they don’t.

Further reading: My season preview of Seton Hall written in late June.

What’s interesting about these metrics is that Seton Hall’s offense looks pretty similar to Kevin Willard’s last few teams in South Orange: play physically, attack the rim and sometimes, the best offense comes off an offensive rebound. 

An extra wrinkle to how the offense looks now with Holloway: they give up a ton of turnovers. In fact, seven of Seton Hall’s rotation players have A/TO ratios less than 1.0, which does not include Kadary Richmond who gives up a team high 2.3 turnovers/game. Considering that UConn is 59th in the nation at defensive turnover rate, the Huskies are primed to take advantage of transition offense opportunities and finish with its first game leading the turnover ratio since the Creigton game.

No surprise that a Shaheen Holloway coached team is defensively elite. Not only does Holloway focus on D, but he now has even better athletes and length than what he rostered at Saint Peter’s (Seton Hall is the 54th tallest team in the nation and most of Seton Hall’s rotations feature four 6’6+ defenders.)

Rotation splits via KenPom.com

One thing that should bring UConn fan’s solace: UConn has bigger and/or better defensive guards to match up with Richmond after he dumped 27 points last season (I was in the building, to my demise) bullying defenders in the low post. 

One surprising aspect of Holloway’s rotations from looking above: it’s almost like he runs separate offensive and defensive rotations. The starting lineup of Richmond/Dawes/Odukale/Ndefo/Samuel is clearly their best defensive lineup, but then it seems like whenever Jackson (one of their worst defenders, he reminds me a bit of a bigger Tyler Polley) is playing the 5, Ndefo is also out and Harris usually subs in, which gives Seton Hall a better shooting team, but a much less effective defensive group.

What does this mean? To put it simply: when Samuel/Ndefo are both on the bench and Jackson is in, take advantage and FEED THE POST. 

If you haven’t watched Ndefo play yet, you can’t help but be reminded of Isaiah Whaley: an elite energy defensive firecracker glue guy of a power forward. Ndefo isn’t a very good offensive player, but watching the Seton Hall @ DePaul game, most of his offense was on post-up attacks and he’s got some creativity down low.

For Uconn, I’m curious if Hurley would try a Calcaterra/Hawkins/Jackson/Karaban/Sanogo starting lineup. 

Why?

Even though Seton Hall has incredible metrics defending the perimeter, UConn should not be comfortable centering their offensive attack around Sanogo or Clingan, especially with Samuel and Ndefo’s ability to swarm opponents near the basket. Seton Hall is elite at preventing free throw attempts, so Newton’s offensive strength would be neutralized. 

Calcaterra is a better shooter and has a turnover rate 6% lower than Newton’s, so he’d likely be a safer, more controlled stretch-the-floor option. On D, he matches up well with Dawes, an elite shooter, but easy to track since he does almost all of his work on the perimeter. That leaves Jackson to focus on Richmond, Sanogo on Samuel, Karaban on Ndefo, and Hawkins on Odukale. 

Honestly, if there were a game to give Newton minimal minutes, especially after his performance at St. John’s, Seton Hall makes the most sense especially since UConn follows up this game with a much less defensively stout Butler to help get him back on track. 

KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 69-65.

St. John's Scouting Report Prior Their Sunday Matchup vs UConn

 St. John’s: 12-6

Kenpom Rating: 72

Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 341st

Best wins:

• 70-50 home win v #92 Nebraska

• Joel Soriano: 17 points, 18 rebounds, 3 blocks

• David Jones: 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals

• 71-61 home win v #85 Butler

• Joel Soriano: 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks

Worst loss (no “awful” losses, but 0-4 in true away games):

• All losses against top-70 teams. Only non-con loss was against Iowa State

After beating Butler, St. John’s snapped a five-game losing streak (Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence)

OFFENSE: 75th in efficiency

• 2nd fastest offensive tempo (14.7 seconds per possession)

• 4th lowest block rate (4.9%)

• 46th highest offensive rebounding rate (33.8%)

• 96th best 2p% (52.2 2p%)

• Median in A/FGM (51.4%)

• Bottom-third in

• 10.1 Steal %

• 32.3 3p%

• 68.3 ft%

• Bottom-quarter in 

• FTA/FGA: 25.5%

• 3PA/FGA: 29.0%

DEFENSE: 70th in efficiency

• 29th in steal % (12.5%)

• 82nd highest overall turnover % (20.5%, lowest in Anderson’s St. John’s era)

• 82nd best defensive rebounding rate

• 132nd in FTA/FGA (29.1%)

• Median in

• O3P% (33.3%)

• O2P% (16.4%)

• 3PA/FGA (37.2%)

• Seconds per possession (17.5 seconds)

• Bottom-third in A/FGM (52.9%)

The thing that sticks out to me is rotation variability. Here are the starting lineups from the last five games, notably Joel Soriano is the only consistent starter during that span.

Curbelo, Posh, Mathis, Jones, Soriano

Posh, Mathis, Addae-Wusu, Stanley, Soriano

Addae-Wusu, Mathis, Jones, Stanley, Soriano

Posh, Addae-Wusu, Storr, Jones, Soriano

Posh, Addae-Wusu, Storr, Stanley, Soriano

What I notice the most about this above chart is the inconsistency of Anderson’s rotations. 

For example, even though it might be normal to see both Curbelo and Alexander on the court at the same time, there will be times where neither guard will be on the court, with Dylan Addae-Wusu as the de facto point guard.

If Mathis (40.5 3p%) continues to nurse his toe injury, St. John’s will continue to be even more of what they are: an athletic, volatile team that lacks shooters. 

My favorite player on the team is Joel Soriano, a calming and efficient two-way big who is a monster on the boards (top-31 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding rate). On a team with so many poor shooters, sometimes St. John’s best half-court offense is to chuck up a shot and let Soriano feast second chance opportunities. 

DePaul transfer David Jones is doing a lot of what he did at DePaul: impressive athleticism and five-tool potential, but can be very hot and cold (9 or less points in three of the last six games). Considering UConn’s deficiencies defending the 4, it would make the most sense to play smaller with Jones, rather than Stanley, at the 4, and then go smaller from there. One thing I’ve noticed about Jones: he has a super high dribble, so something to watch there for transition opportunities.

In the backcourt, Posh Alexander is their signature defender, a bulldog on-ball defender, but a mostly non-factor on offense. Andre Curbelo has been better defensively than I expected he would, but his creativity on offense often leads to mistakes. Both guards are non-factors on the perimeter, even though they hit a prayer every now and then.

Dylan Addae-Wusu is their linebacker sized hybrid guard/wing/forward who can distribute for his teammates and is a physical defender. A secondary scorer, Addae-Wusu doesn’t have the best metrics, but he is capable of scoring at all three levels. Personally, I’d put Jackson on Jones, leaving Karaban to defend Addae-Wusu.

Both Pinzon and Storr have long-term potential, but right now they are mostly on the court as floor spacers. Both are excellent shooters and I could see Storr becoming one of the breakout stars of the Big East next season. 

In their frontcourt depth, Stanley has some niftiness to his offensive game while Nyiwe is an excellent defender who can run the floor and guard multiple positions, but he takes risks on defense, leaving opportunities for wide open buckets elsewhere. 

KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 82-67.

A team like St. John’s is a matchup where you are a little tepid about the result…if UConn continues to limit mistakes on offense, they should win this game handedly, as St. John’s halfcourt offense is pretty bad. 

Considering Soriano’s recent streak (19.3 ppg in the last 7), I’d expect Anderson to run his halfcourt offense through Soriano, feed the beast and hopefully put Sanogo in foul trouble.

Providence Scouting Report Prior to Wednesday's Matchup Hosting UConn

 Providence: 12-3

Kenpom Rating: 43

Overall Strength of Schedule: 212th (10th easiest non-con)

Best wins:

• 103-98 (2 OT) v #29 Marquette

• Bryce Hopkins: 29 points, 23 rebounds, 13-18 FTs

• Croswell and Carter w/ 20 points

• 72-52 @ #83 DePaul

• Devin Carter: 21 points, 3 assists

• Ed Croswell: 15 points, 10 boards

No “bad” Losses:

• 64-75 v #36 Miami (neutral)

• 73-76 v #80 Saint Louis (neutral)

• 62-75 @  #34 TCU 

Currently on a seven game winning streak headlined with Big East wins over Seton Hall, Marquette, Butler and DePaul

OFFENSE: 31st in efficiency

• 6th in offensive rebounding rate (38.4%)

• 19th in FTA/FGA (41.4)

• 66th in 2p% (53.4%)

• 119th in A/FGM (53.6%)

• 120th in FT% (72.8%)

• 146th in offensive tempo (17.1 seconds/possession)

• 147th in 3p% (34.0%)

• ~median in turnover rate (18.7%)

• 325th in 3PA/FGA (30/2%)

DEFENSE: 69th (nice) in efficiency

• 27th in A/FGM prevention (43%)

• 31st in FTA/FGA prevention rate (23.6%)

• 39th in 3PA/FGA prevention (31.8%)

• 47th in block rate (12.3%)

• 63rd in steal rate (11.3%)

• 65th in Opp. 2p% (46.0%)

• 90th in Opp. offensive rebounding rate (26.0%)

• ~median in Opp. 3p% (33.0%)

• Near bottom in

• Opp. FT% (76.2%)

• Non steal/block turnover % (7.6%) 

I’ve watched three of Providence’s games this year: their win over Rhode Island, their win against Seton Hall and last night’s win over DePaul.

The biggest difference between the Seton Hall and DePaul game is that Providence’s offense looked a lot better against DePaul. In the Seton Hall game, Providence’s scoring was mostly Bryce Hopkins on iso attacking the basket and Croswell getting put backs from offensive boards (only 26 points scored from other Friars).

Providence looked a lot more in sync against DePaul, highlighted by Devin Carter, who has averaged 21 points per game over the last three games and is tough defensively. Overall, he has vastly exceeded expectations after transferring from South Carolina.

Also, after a slow start (8.3 ppg, 33.0 fg% in first 12 games), Jared Bynum has looked a lot more comfortable in the last three games (15.0 ppg, 46.9 fg%).

When you consider that only Bynum, Croswell and Allyn Breed were the only rotation pieces on the team last year, it makes sense that it has taken some time for the Friars to jell, but one of Cooley’s coaching strengths is letting players play to their strengths. 

That being said, Providence’s offense revolves around Ed Croswell playing the Nate Watson role and Noah Locke as the consistent floor stretcher, leaving Bynum/Hopkins/Carter to work together to knife through the offense and look for easy offense within 15 feet. 

Speaking of Hopkins, on offense he reminds me a bit of a bigger version of David Duke (even though Duke was a better defensive player), so while fans were not happy with UConn’s defense against Freemantle, playing Xavier will definitely help prep UConn to make adjustments and properly defend Hopkins on Wednesday and Kaluma on Saturday.

Now in conference play, Cooley has whittled down to an eight-man rotation with every player, aside from Jayden Pierre, with positionally stout statures. To put it bluntly, Providence is thicc and will be a very tough opponent.

Defensively, Providence does not want to play in transition as their defense is vastly better when set. If there was ever a game to play two bigs, the Providence game is not that situation: quick transition forwards like Karaban and Jackson (and maybe Johnson?) will be huge for UConn to get defensive rebounds (8th best rate in the nation) and work quickly up the court before guys like Croswell and Hopkins to get in position.

While UConn is favored to win, fans should not take this game lightly: UConn is 1-2 against Providence since rejoining the Big East and unless UConn can get in transition with regularity, Wednesday should yet again be a grind against the Friars.