St. John's Scouting Report Prior Their Sunday Matchup vs UConn

 St. John’s: 12-6

Kenpom Rating: 72

Non-Con Strength of Schedule: 341st

Best wins:

• 70-50 home win v #92 Nebraska

• Joel Soriano: 17 points, 18 rebounds, 3 blocks

• David Jones: 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals

• 71-61 home win v #85 Butler

• Joel Soriano: 20 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks

Worst loss (no “awful” losses, but 0-4 in true away games):

• All losses against top-70 teams. Only non-con loss was against Iowa State

After beating Butler, St. John’s snapped a five-game losing streak (Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence)

OFFENSE: 75th in efficiency

• 2nd fastest offensive tempo (14.7 seconds per possession)

• 4th lowest block rate (4.9%)

• 46th highest offensive rebounding rate (33.8%)

• 96th best 2p% (52.2 2p%)

• Median in A/FGM (51.4%)

• Bottom-third in

• 10.1 Steal %

• 32.3 3p%

• 68.3 ft%

• Bottom-quarter in 

• FTA/FGA: 25.5%

• 3PA/FGA: 29.0%

DEFENSE: 70th in efficiency

• 29th in steal % (12.5%)

• 82nd highest overall turnover % (20.5%, lowest in Anderson’s St. John’s era)

• 82nd best defensive rebounding rate

• 132nd in FTA/FGA (29.1%)

• Median in

• O3P% (33.3%)

• O2P% (16.4%)

• 3PA/FGA (37.2%)

• Seconds per possession (17.5 seconds)

• Bottom-third in A/FGM (52.9%)

The thing that sticks out to me is rotation variability. Here are the starting lineups from the last five games, notably Joel Soriano is the only consistent starter during that span.

Curbelo, Posh, Mathis, Jones, Soriano

Posh, Mathis, Addae-Wusu, Stanley, Soriano

Addae-Wusu, Mathis, Jones, Stanley, Soriano

Posh, Addae-Wusu, Storr, Jones, Soriano

Posh, Addae-Wusu, Storr, Stanley, Soriano

What I notice the most about this above chart is the inconsistency of Anderson’s rotations. 

For example, even though it might be normal to see both Curbelo and Alexander on the court at the same time, there will be times where neither guard will be on the court, with Dylan Addae-Wusu as the de facto point guard.

If Mathis (40.5 3p%) continues to nurse his toe injury, St. John’s will continue to be even more of what they are: an athletic, volatile team that lacks shooters. 

My favorite player on the team is Joel Soriano, a calming and efficient two-way big who is a monster on the boards (top-31 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding rate). On a team with so many poor shooters, sometimes St. John’s best half-court offense is to chuck up a shot and let Soriano feast second chance opportunities. 

DePaul transfer David Jones is doing a lot of what he did at DePaul: impressive athleticism and five-tool potential, but can be very hot and cold (9 or less points in three of the last six games). Considering UConn’s deficiencies defending the 4, it would make the most sense to play smaller with Jones, rather than Stanley, at the 4, and then go smaller from there. One thing I’ve noticed about Jones: he has a super high dribble, so something to watch there for transition opportunities.

In the backcourt, Posh Alexander is their signature defender, a bulldog on-ball defender, but a mostly non-factor on offense. Andre Curbelo has been better defensively than I expected he would, but his creativity on offense often leads to mistakes. Both guards are non-factors on the perimeter, even though they hit a prayer every now and then.

Dylan Addae-Wusu is their linebacker sized hybrid guard/wing/forward who can distribute for his teammates and is a physical defender. A secondary scorer, Addae-Wusu doesn’t have the best metrics, but he is capable of scoring at all three levels. Personally, I’d put Jackson on Jones, leaving Karaban to defend Addae-Wusu.

Both Pinzon and Storr have long-term potential, but right now they are mostly on the court as floor spacers. Both are excellent shooters and I could see Storr becoming one of the breakout stars of the Big East next season. 

In their frontcourt depth, Stanley has some niftiness to his offensive game while Nyiwe is an excellent defender who can run the floor and guard multiple positions, but he takes risks on defense, leaving opportunities for wide open buckets elsewhere. 

KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 82-67.

A team like St. John’s is a matchup where you are a little tepid about the result…if UConn continues to limit mistakes on offense, they should win this game handedly, as St. John’s halfcourt offense is pretty bad. 

Considering Soriano’s recent streak (19.3 ppg in the last 7), I’d expect Anderson to run his halfcourt offense through Soriano, feed the beast and hopefully put Sanogo in foul trouble.