Providence: 12-3
Kenpom Rating: 43
Overall Strength of Schedule: 212th (10th easiest non-con)
Best wins:
103-98 (2 OT) v #29 Marquette
Bryce Hopkins: 29 points, 23 rebounds, 13-18 FTs
Croswell and Carter w/ 20 points
72-52 @ #83 DePaul
Devin Carter: 21 points, 3 assists
Ed Croswell: 15 points, 10 boards
No “bad” Losses:
64-75 v #36 Miami (neutral)
73-76 v #80 Saint Louis (neutral)
62-75 @ #34 TCU
Currently on a seven game winning streak headlined with Big East wins over Seton Hall, Marquette, Butler and DePaul
OFFENSE: 31st in efficiency
6th in offensive rebounding rate (38.4%)
19th in FTA/FGA (41.4)
66th in 2p% (53.4%)
119th in A/FGM (53.6%)
120th in FT% (72.8%)
146th in offensive tempo (17.1 seconds/possession)
147th in 3p% (34.0%)
~median in turnover rate (18.7%)
325th in 3PA/FGA (30/2%)
DEFENSE: 69th (nice) in efficiency
27th in A/FGM prevention (43%)
31st in FTA/FGA prevention rate (23.6%)
39th in 3PA/FGA prevention (31.8%)
47th in block rate (12.3%)
63rd in steal rate (11.3%)
65th in Opp. 2p% (46.0%)
90th in Opp. offensive rebounding rate (26.0%)
~median in Opp. 3p% (33.0%)
Near bottom in
Opp. FT% (76.2%)
Non steal/block turnover % (7.6%)
I’ve watched three of Providence’s games this year: their win over Rhode Island, their win against Seton Hall and last night’s win over DePaul.
The biggest difference between the Seton Hall and DePaul game is that Providence’s offense looked a lot better against DePaul. In the Seton Hall game, Providence’s scoring was mostly Bryce Hopkins on iso attacking the basket and Croswell getting put backs from offensive boards (only 26 points scored from other Friars).
Providence looked a lot more in sync against DePaul, highlighted by Devin Carter, who has averaged 21 points per game over the last three games and is tough defensively. Overall, he has vastly exceeded expectations after transferring from South Carolina.
Also, after a slow start (8.3 ppg, 33.0 fg% in first 12 games), Jared Bynum has looked a lot more comfortable in the last three games (15.0 ppg, 46.9 fg%).
When you consider that only Bynum, Croswell and Allyn Breed were the only rotation pieces on the team last year, it makes sense that it has taken some time for the Friars to jell, but one of Cooley’s coaching strengths is letting players play to their strengths.
That being said, Providence’s offense revolves around Ed Croswell playing the Nate Watson role and Noah Locke as the consistent floor stretcher, leaving Bynum/Hopkins/Carter to work together to knife through the offense and look for easy offense within 15 feet.
Speaking of Hopkins, on offense he reminds me a bit of a bigger version of David Duke (even though Duke was a better defensive player), so while fans were not happy with UConn’s defense against Freemantle, playing Xavier will definitely help prep UConn to make adjustments and properly defend Hopkins on Wednesday and Kaluma on Saturday.
Now in conference play, Cooley has whittled down to an eight-man rotation with every player, aside from Jayden Pierre, with positionally stout statures. To put it bluntly, Providence is thicc and will be a very tough opponent.
Defensively, Providence does not want to play in transition as their defense is vastly better when set. If there was ever a game to play two bigs, the Providence game is not that situation: quick transition forwards like Karaban and Jackson (and maybe Johnson?) will be huge for UConn to get defensive rebounds (8th best rate in the nation) and work quickly up the court before guys like Croswell and Hopkins to get in position.
While UConn is favored to win, fans should not take this game lightly: UConn is 1-2 against Providence since rejoining the Big East and unless UConn can get in transition with regularity, Wednesday should yet again be a grind against the Friars.
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