In the wake of their third Ivy League regular season championship in four seasons, Yale’s season would have been deemed a success for many mid-major programs, but after their loss to Princeton on Princeton’s home court in the final of the Ivy Tournament, followed by a first round oust at Vanderbilt in the NIT, best guess is that head coach James Jones and his players wanted more.
That is because over the last decade, Jones has helped transform the Yale basketball program into arguably the best in the Ivy: case in point, since the 2014-15 season Yale has earned five Ivy League regular season championships and three tournament selections.
Considering that many of Yale’s best players this year were sophomores and juniors, Yale’s championship expectations are expected to continue next season as the Bulldogs are projected to have one of, if not the best team in the Ivy next season.
It starts with this year’s starting lineup: four of the team’s five starters were sophomores and juniors, led by junior power forward Matt Knowling whose efficient post play (13.6p, 2.4a, 1.4 TO, 63.7 2p%) is the front and center of opponents’ game plan.
Fellow junior August Mahoney finished the season with a scoring average nearly tripling his previous season high, averaging 10.9 points, 1.9 three pointers made and with incredible efficiency (56.3 2p%, 46.7 3p%, 93.1 ft%). According to KenPom, Mahoney’s 129.9 offensive rating was good for fifteenth in the nation.
Sophomores filled the remainder of the two backcourt spots with Yale’s second leading scorer John Poulakidas bringing shot-making ability, creating offense on his own inside the arc while providing efficiency in the perimeter and on the charity stripe (12.0p, 2.2 3PM, 40.1 3p%, 81.0 ft%).
Point guard duties were shared between sophomores Bez Mbeng and Yassine Gharram, who provided Yale with two aggressive defenders with enough length to guard multiple positions. Gharram is more of a pass-first option while Mbeng has made strides increasing his scoring (10.4 ppg), ability to break down defenses and improve his perimeter shot (26.9 3p% to 32.3 3p%).
While the guard position looks set for 2023-24, freshman Devon Arlington and incoming freshman Trevor Mullin were highly recruited out of high school, each earning more than ten offers during their recruitment.
Like Mbeng and Gharram, the 6'3 Arlington possesses intriguing length at the point guard position and finished his high school career at San Marcos as the school's all-time leading scorer finishing with 2,035 career points.
At St. Sebastian's, Mullin also finished his high school career as the program's all-time leading scorer. Like Poulakidas and Mahoney, Mullin has incredible range and profiles as an undersized off-ball guard akin to all-time Yale great Azar Swain.
If Yale is able to retain their key sophomores and juniors, the Bulldogs will return all of their best weapons, save for the departing senior bigs Isaiah Kelly and EJ Jarvis. The duo provided a yin yang to the five spot, with Jarvis averaging 11.3 ppg in just 22.4 mpg and Kelly touted as one of the best defenders in the Ivy.
As of today, the best bet to take over at the big are freshman Danny Wolf and sophomore Jack Molloy. Listed at 7’0 250, Wolf was a McDonald’s All-American Game nominee and brings classic, low-post rim protection, averaging 2.1 blocks-per-40 minutes played in limited action. Surprisingly, for a player his size, 40% of his shot attempts were from three and Wolf connected at 30.4%. In limited time so far, Molloy is best profiled as a stretch forward, shooting threes in 60% of his shot attempts, but he needs to improve his accuracy (23.9 3P%).
Junior forward Yussif Basa-Ama has played less than 300 minutes across his two seasons at Yale, but could parlay his athleticism and defensive versatility to more of a featured role next season.
Picking Yale after previously receiving offers from Houston, Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas A&M and others, incoming 6’9 freshman forward Samson Aletan possesses massive long-term potential and is a darkhorse candidate to secure a significant role immediately thanks to his high-major caliber athleticism, projectable frame and work ethic that should fit in perfectly with Yale’s tough defensive mindset.
Of course, these projections all depend on the omnipresence of the portal, but on the eve of March Madness, Yale is the best bet to make the tournament next season.
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