Tier One: The High-Majors
Rutgers
The impact Steve Pikiell has had on Rutgers cannot be understated: after three decades as one of the most pathetic high-major programs throughout the 90s, 00s and 10s, Pikiell has slowly developed Rutgers to become one of the most fearsome defenses in the nation.
Caleb McConnell, the anchor of last year’s defense, has graduated while Cam Spencer (UConn) and Paul Mulcahy (Washington) are taking his extra years of eligibility elsewhere, but the Scarlet Knights’ returning foundation is led by senior big Cliff Omoruyi, a nightly double-double threat, and sophomore guard Derek Simpson, who averaged nearly fourteen points-per-game throughout the last six games of the season.
After suffering a torn ACL in February, senior forward Mawot Mag, Rutgers' best returning defender and consummate glue guy, has been recovering well and has a chance to start the season fully healthy and again reprise his starting role at power forward.
UMass transfer Noah Fernandes will help offset the loss of Mulcahy as Rutgers’ primary playmaker. What Fernandes lacks in size, he provides efficiency and scoring potential (13.4p, 50.0 2P%, 45.2 3P%) plus an ability to attack the rim and create his own offense.
Incoming four-star freshman Gavin Griffiths is expected to add an immediate jolt to the offense as a 6’7 scorer with elite range. Waiver pending, Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams, who last played in the 2021-22 season with Temple, is also an intriguing big guard with great vision and an ability to facilitate and score from the elbow.
A .500 or better Big Ten conference record in each of the last four seasons, and tournament selections in three of those seasons, expect Rutgers to continue to contend this upcoming season for a tournament bid.
Seton Hall
After rising to national attention after his Elite Eight run with Saint Peter’s, Shaheen Holloway led his alma mater to a solid first season at the helm after finishing with an even record in Big East conference play.
Similar to his Saint Peter’s teams, last year’s Seton Hall squad played frenetic defense, but lacked synergy on offense after finishing the season with the highest turnover rate in the Big East.
Seton Hall’s foundation is in its backcourt with dangerous isolation weapon Kadary Richmond (10.1p, 4.1a) returning to a starting backcourt role along with knockdown shooter Al-Amir Dawes (12.6p, 38.2 3P%). Starting alongside the backcourt is St. John’s transfer Dylan Addae-Wusu, a physical, versatile wing who will help offset the loss of Femi Odukale transferring to New Mexico State.
Dealing with two separate injury issues last season, senior wing Dre Davis is another projected starter who finished last season with his best shooting splits of his career (56.3 2P%, 40.9 3P%, 86.2 FT%). A continuation of his efficiency will help open up space for Richmond to use his size and length down low.
Seton Hall will debut a brand new frontcourt that is headlined by Orange, NJ native Elijah Hutchins-Everett, a 6’11 255 big who finished last season averaging 11.5 points and 5.5 rebounds for Austin Peay. In addition to his low-post play, Hutchins-Everett has a career 31.7 3P%, attempting 1.7 threes per game in that time.
Jaden Bediako (6 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 bpg) is a grad transfer from Santa Clara and plays a more classic low-post game while incoming sophomore Sadraque NgaNga, former four-star recruit for Boise State, brings promise as an electric athlete with a high ceiling.
On the bench, sophomores Jaquan Sanders, JaQuan Harris and freshman Isaiah Coleman will look to compete for backcourt minutes as they will make up the next wave of talent for Holloway.
Like last year, expect Seton Hall to finish somewhere near the middle of the Big East standings, but are in danger of underwhelming should their frontcourt not prove to have enough talent to step up in conference play.
Tier 2: The Conference Contenders
3) Princeton
Last season’s Sweet Sixteen run helped solidify Mitch Henderson as the most impactful coach at Princeton since Bill Carmody, who was Henderson’s coach during his playing days at Princeton and also the first head coach to hire Henderson as a long-time assistant at Northwestern.
Even with First Team All-Ivy selection Tosan Evbuomwan graduating and Ryan Langborg transferring to Northwestern, Henderson should be confident in his returning squad, led by Second Team All-Ivy senior Matt Allocco, whose shooting, playmaking and two-way hustle makes him one of the most exciting players in the Ivy League.
Impressing with his gritty defense and excellent rebounding for his size, sophomore Caden Pierce will start at power forward while the remainder of Princeton’s starting lineup is built around the potential breakout season from sharpshooting senior big Zach Martini (34.3 3P%), efficient two-way sophomore wing Deven Austin and electric sophomore guard Xaivian Lee, who impressed in the FIBA U19 World Cup after averaging 14.1 points, 3.1 assists and 4.6 free throw attempts per game while shooting an efficient 53.2 2P%, 36.4 3P% and 78.1 FT%, foreshadowing a shot to become arguably the most impactful breakout in the conference. It would be remiss not to also include perimeter weapon Blake Peters, a 6’1 junior who shot nearly 40% from three, as another Tigers capable of breaking out with more playing time.
Along with Yale, Princeton looks to be Ivy favorites yet again.
4) Rider
As Kevin Baggett enters his twelfth season leading Rider, he has built a reputation as one of the most consistent coaches in the MAAC.
The Broncs have had regular season success following their 2017-18 regular season championship, but have yet to lace up their March Madness dancing shoes in nearly thirty years.
However, with both Siena and Iona going through major rebuilds, this could be Rider’s year to be the last team standing in the MAAC Tournament in Atlantic City.
Fifth-year returnees Merwin James (12.9 ppg) and Allen Powell (10.4 ppg) are clearly the best two returning weapons, but the scoring and shooting void left behind from Dwight Murray Jr. (15.7 ppg, 40 3P%) will, in part, be taken on by the additions of brothers TJ and Tyriek Weeks.
A redshirt senior with 56 career starts at UMass, the 6’4 185 TJ Weeks has been a consistent scorer, averaging ten points per game and shooting 36.5% from the three point line throughout his career.
At 6’6 200, Tyriek Weeks is Rider’s likely starter at the 3-guard after an impressive freshman season at Miami Dade Junior College where he averaged 14.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 0.9 blocks per game, while shooting 40% from three and nearly 80% from the charity stripe.
Their best defensive pieces, returning seniors Corey McKeitan and Tariq Ingraham ranked third and first, respectively, in defensive efficiency with McKeitan penciled in next season no lower than the first guard off the bench while the 6’11 255 Ingraham, a former three-star recruit originally committed to Wake Forest, is the favorite to start at center after injuries derailed most of his first three collegiate seasons.
Expect Baggett to lean on a shorter, veteran-laden rotation anchored by the offense of James, Powell and TJ Weeks, the upside of Ingraham and Tyriek Weeks, along with the steady two-way play of McKeitan.
5) FDU
It is not often that a small mid-major enters a new season with its third different head coach in three seasons while also generating positive momentum, but FDU is used to bucking the trends.
Simply put, FDU’s 2022-23 season was magical: after finishing the 2021-22 season with a 4-22 record, the Tobin Anderson-led Knights shocked the world by beating top-seed Purdue in the tournament.
Following Anderson’s exit to Iona, FDU promoted assistant coach Jack Castleberry, who will help keep FDU’s winning formula intact: great guard play and a defense predicated on the full court press.
The aftermath of promoting Castleberry has already paid dividends. As a leader of recruiting efforts under Anderson, the relationships he has made under that role has been essential to the retention of three starters and five other rotation pieces from last year’s Cinderella squad.
Honored by the Northeast Conference coaches as the Most Improved Player of the Year, Ansley Almonor is FDU’s most essential returnee thanks to his production and his positional rarity. The 6’6 219 junior from nearby Spring Valley, NY was the Knights’ de facto center whose 37.8 3P% will allow Castleberry to continue to roll out five-out offensive sets.
As he enters his fourth season with FDU, Joe Munden is not only the Knights’ longest tenured returnee, but arguably the team’s most efficient weapon. The 6’3 188 guard out of Harlem ranked within the top-20 in the Northeast Conference in offensive rating, rebounding, turnover and fouls drawn rates while also ranking within the top-13 in 2P%, 3P% and FT%, all while playing as an undersized four-guard.
Alongside Munden is fellow small ball “forward” and former STAC standout Sean Moore. The last remaining player who joined last season from St. Thomas Aquinas College, Moore is a quintessential glue guy guard who plays with infectious effort, strong rebounding and also has the athleticism to break down the defense and get to the bucket.
Even with Anderson in New Rochelle, the STAC to FDU pipeline will continue this offseason with incoming grad transfer DeVante Jamison, a shifty, unselfish undersized point guard who earned the nickname “Bullet” due to his lightning quick handle and dogged effort on defense.
Rounding out FDU’s projected starting lineup is fifth-year returnee Heru Bligen, who is looking to return to his early season success after starting the season averaging 14.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.1 free throw attempts and 1.1 steals per game before sitting out five weeks with a mid-season injury. Bligen is not a perimeter threat, but when surrounded by FDU’s capable shooters, Bligen will be provided the space to do what he does best: penetrate and attack the interior.
Like last year, FDU’s starting lineup will be short in stature, but rich with tenacious guard play and anchored by the shooting and hustle of Almonor. Overall, the NEC looks to be wide open this season and FDU has as good of a chance as any team to finish the season at the top.
Tier 3: Work in Progress
6) Monmouth
Last season, Monmouth’s CAA debut coincided with a major rebuilding season with the Hawks fielding the eighth least experienced team in the nation, according to KenPom. To no surprise, the Hawks struggled, finishing the season with a 7-26 record, their worst season under King Rice’s dozen seasons as head coach.
Monmouth’s problem was simple: they didn’t have enough offensive firepower. The Hawks ranked in the bottom-five nationally in field goal percentage, three-point percentage and three-point attempt to field-goal attempt ratio.
In a sense, Monmouth’s offseason feels a bit of a rebirth: on one hand, having half of your top-six scorers transfer doesn’t sound good, but considering the trio collectively shot just 14-for-61 from three (23%), there is an opportunity to build new rotations that cater to a more balanced offensive attack.
King Rice didn’t need to look far for the offseason’s biggest splash: his son Xander will take his last year of eligibility at Monmouth after completing his senior season as a Third-Team All-Patriot League selection at Bucknell where he averaged 14.1 points, 3.8 assists and 2.2 threes made per game, shooting 35.6% from the perimeter. Rice will instantly become the Hawks’ alpha on offense and it will come to no surprise if he ends up having a career year.
Monmouth’s most established returnees are sophomore shooting guard Jack Collins (10.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 steals), senior big Klemen Vuga (9.5 points, 5.3 rebounds) and senior point guard Jakari Spence (3.5 assists, 1.5 steals), but this will be another season where the youth will have opportunities to step up and secure key roles.
For example, sophomore power forward Jaret Valencia is arguably the most touted prospect in Monmouth history, once receiving offers from nine high-majors while sophomore wing Andrew Ball brings intriguing size (6’8 195) for a willing shooter. Gabe Spinelli, a sophomore transfer from Evansville, was a regular rotation piece as a freshman while fifth-year big Nikita Kontstantynovskyi will look for an increased role after two seasons at Tulsa.
King Rice’s Monmouth teams always play tough D and push the tempo. Now led by his son, Xander, the Hawks could surprise in the CAA.
7) Saint Peter’s
At the conclusion of Bashir Mason’s first season at Saint Peter’s, the graduation of leading scorer Isaiah Dasher, Jaylen Saddler, the team’s most efficient three-point shooter, plus the gut punch news of Jaylen Murray transferring to Ole Miss, made it clear that the Peacocks were in store for a major rebuilding after a mostly disappointing season.
One expected starter is fifth-year returnee Latrell Reid, a physical 6’3 two-way point guard who led the team in steals and assists and was second only to incoming junior forward Mouhamed Sow in rebounds. Reid is a consummate glue guy who does the little things well, but is mostly a non-factor on offense.
Perhaps the Peacocks’ most exciting returnee is the athletic sophomore forward Corey Washington, who is an excellent rebounder and an efficient interior scorer, finishing last season with a 68.6 2P%, good for 24th in the nation.
Sophomore guard Brent Bland was ranked by EvanMiya.com as the Peacocks’ most efficient defender, it makes sense that the 6’3 205 Bland was previously recruited by Shaheen Holloway as his physicality and lunch-pail ability to defend multiple positions will earn him valuable playing time next season.
The Peacocks reeled in six transfers, led by Willingboro native and Richmond transfer Marcus Randolph, who announced his return to his home state after earning a regular rotation role with the Spiders during his sophomore season. At 6’5 195 and with a career 39.6 three-point percentage, Randolph has major breakout potential providing a much needed shooting boost for the Peacocks, who owned the seventh worst three-point percentage in the nation at an inauspicious 29.0%.
Similar to last year, expect Saint Peter’s to work hard and win some hard-fought games, but also struggle to score enough to contend in the MAAC.
8) NJIT
As NJIT enters their fourth season in the America East conference, the Highlanders will be led by an intriguing, young NYC metro area coaching staff, spearheaded by first-time head coach and long time Kevin Willard assistant Grant Billmeier. He will be flanked by former Manhattan interim head coach RaShawn Stores and former Wagner and FDU assistant Pete Lappas, whose father coached at Manhattan, Villanova and UMass.
Fifth-year returnees Adam Hess (10.7 ppg, 43.4 3P%) and Kjell de Graaf (5.9p, 35.3 3P%) will anchor the perimeter attack while Justin Anderson will return as a defensive-first depth guard. Senior guard Mekhi Gray has some versatility as a mid-range scorer and unselfish passer and is expected to reprise his starting role next year.
Manhattan choosing not to promote RaShawn Stores from the interim head coach role after a .500 conference record caused an exodus, leaving grad transfers Elijah Buchanan and Daniel Schierer to join Stores at NJIT. A 6’5 guard known for his defense and rebounding, Buchanan is also a streaky scorer who is expected to start while the 6’9 Schierer played minimally for the Jaspers, but is a willing perimeter shooter and could compete for a rotation role.
A five-man freshman class will also try to impress as the NJIT Highlanders are expected to have a trying first season under Billmeier, yet it will be interesting to follow how his staff leads the program throughout the next few seasons.
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