By Joe Budzelek (@stf_ncaa)
For seven consecutive years, a different team has won the Northeast Conference tournament and this year’s regular season champs – Central Connecticut State – is looking for its first NEC tournament title since 2007 as the Blue Devils are currently riding the nation’s longest winning streak, entering Wednesday’s quarterfinals tilt against Le Moyne winning twelve straight games against their NEC peers.
The Favorite
In terms of analytics, few teams are more dominant within their conference than CCSU. According to KenPom, CCSU’s current #174 national ranking is the conference’s first sub-200 ranking since the 2021-22 season when both Wagner and Bryant finished the season at #149 and #189, respectively. As of Sunday morning, the distance between CCSU’s rank and LIU’s, the NEC’s #2 seed, is by 109 places, the widest margin in the nation.
This statistical outlier is driven by the Blue Devils’ dominance on both sides of the court.
Entering the beginning of the season, defense was the foundation of their initial success as CCSU’s overall defensive efficiency is currently within the 76th percentile nationally, per KenPom. As of today, the Blue Devils are allowing just 63.0 points-per-game, a program record.
Senior forward Abdul Momoh is the anchor of CCSU’s defense, swatting a career high 1.9 blocks-per-game during conference play along with an active motor that allows him to pester forwards and guards alike with fluidity. Senior guard Joe Ostrowsky continues to be CCSU’s best defensive guard while transfer addition Jaelen McGlone has flashed his physicality and defensive versatility off-the-bench ever since an offseason injury forced him to wait until mid-January to make his season debut.
While CCSU’s defensive dominance has not been a total surprise, few would have predicted the Blue Devils to finish the regular season with the most efficient offense in NEC conference play.
Fifth-year returning guard Jordan Jones is not only the best player in the conference – averaging 16.3 points and 3.6 assists during NEC play – but he has made strides in his efficiency by improving his 2P% from 45.7% to 59.6%, 3P% from 33.3% to 43.5% and also turnovers-per-game from 2.6 to 2.2 per game in conference play compared to last year.
This year, returning senior Jayden Brown made the full-time positional shift from starting center to starting power forward and this shift has not only helped the team’s defense and rebounding, but Brown has responded with his best offensive season of his career, averaging 10.1 points and 2.3 three-point attempts per game during conference play.
The improved play of CCSU’s returning players is the biggest reason for the Blue Devils’ offensive improvement, but grad transfer guard Devin Haid has greatly exceeded expectations by growing into the team’s second star after averaging 13.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game and making 60% of his two-pointers, 31% of his three-pointers and 85% of his free-throws during conference play. Per KenPom, Haid finished the regular season with the fourth highest offensive efficiency rating in the NEC.
Now with a regular season championship under his belt, an ever-modest Sellers deflects this team’s accolades directly to his players, namely on the team’s seniors who are the first to play every season under Sellers. “We have four core seniors that have been here from the beginning – Jayden Brown, Davonte Sweatman, Joe Ostrosky and Abdul Momoh – so those guys helped build our culture,” said Sellers in the offseason, “Anybody we’ve brought in, they’ve welcomed them with open arms. We’ve had a lot of guys come back because of those four guys.”
After graduating from Central Connecticut State and taking his first collegiate coaching job as an assistant under Howie Dickenman, helping to lead the Blue Devils to two NCAA Tournament bids, it only seems fitting for Sellers to lead this team to an NCAA Tournament bid under the leadership of his flagship seniors.
The Challenger
Now in his third season leading LIU, head coach Rod Strickland has steadily improved LIU from a 1-15 doormat in his first season, all the way to this year’s 12-4 NEC record that has been a journey of streaks and slumps.
LIU started conference play with a six-game winning streak, highlighted with a road win at CCSU, but then a four-game losing streak followed that included two overtime losses. However, the last four weeks have been kind to LIU, with the surging Sharks winning their final six regular season games, highlighted with a 74-to-55 victory over FDU in the regular season finale, a game that featured five different Sharks scoring in double-digits.
While starting point guard and coach’s son Terell Strickland stirs the drink on offense (10 ppg, 3.3 apg in NEC conference play), the offseason addition of the Canadian trio of lead guard Malachi Davis (17.4 ppg, 3.5 apg), and forwards Jamal Fuller (13.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 37 3P%, 1.1 bpg) and Shadrak Lasu (7.8 rpg, 1.4 bpg) have catapulted this roster to NEC title contenders. Their recruitment was spearheaded by assistant coach Dalmar Ali, a fellow Canadian native.
Analytically speaking, LIU barely edged out CCSU as the NEC’s most efficient defense during conference play and the frontcourt combo of Fuller’s physicality paired with Lasu’s athleticism and length provides the Sharks with a sturdy foundation down low. Fifth-year senior Brent Davis, who transferred over from Chicago State to LIU alongside Associate Head Coach Gerald Gillion, is LIU’s peskiest backcourt defender, pilfering 2.4 steals-per-game and having enough size and length at 6’4 190 to guard most NEC teams 1-through-4.
The Sleeper Pick
No other conference in the nation has two teams with winning streaks at six games or longer, so it is only natural to predict that either CCSU or LIU will continue their dominance and face off in the NEC title, but Saint Francis has quietly finished the season strongly, with overtime wins in their last three games and wins in five of their last seven games.
Outside of CCSU, Saint Francis is the only team in the Northeast Conference with top-5 ranks in both offensive and defensive efficiency rankings as the Red Flash has steadily worked out their rotations following an early season injury to starting guard Ace Talbert.
In the wake of Talbert’s injury, Australian import guard Riley Parker has shined, leading the team in points (16.3 ppg), assists (3.0 apg) and three-pointers made (2.1 3PM) per game during conference play. East Carolina transfer Valentino Pinedo (11.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg) has grown into a steady low-post presence while Quinnipiac transfer Daemar Kelly (9.9 ppg, 35.6 3P%) has provided the team with an athletic wing who can contribute in a variety of ways.
Few teams in the NEC shoot with more consistency than the Red Flash (52.0 eFG%), so it would not shock if Saint Francis gets hot and upsets LIU, should they matchup together in the semifinals in Brooklyn.
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