On Tuesday night at 7 PM, the #1 seed Merrimack Warriors will host the #6 seed Wagner Seahawks for the Northeast Conference Tournament Finals and a chance to dance in the NCAA Tournament.
For years, Lawler Arena has not been kind to visiting opponents -- dating back to February of last year, Merrimack has lost only once on its home court. The team that beat them?
Wagner.
On January 19th of this season, Wagner defeated Merrimack 71-to-65 in a win carried on the shoulders of starting guards Javier Ezquerra, Julian Brown and Melvin Council playing all 40 minutes. The Warriors are fifth in the nation in defensive turnover rate, but the Wagner backcourt intrepidly sailed through Merrimack's defense as the trio gave up only two combined turnovers. On the glass, Wagner out-rebounded Merrimack by sixteen and shot efficiently throughout the game. Trailing by nine with ninety seconds remaining in the first half, Wagner played arguably its best half of the season, outscoring the Warriors by thirteen.
In the season's second matchup, Wagner's glacial pace kept the first half to a close 24-to-21 slog, but Wagner's abysmal 29.6% shooting from inside the arc sparked Merrimack's second half run, outscoring the Seahawks 39-to-19 while Wagner's backcourt was much more mistake-prone, with the above-mentioned trio giving up a combined ten turnovers and shooting a putrid 2-for-10 from inside the arc.
Entering the championship games with the season series split, Wagner will need to win by playing to their strength -- slowing the pace, hitting the glass and defending the perimeter. The Seahawks won the first matchup thanks to a nearly perfect second half, but they will likely need a more sustained and consistent performance to win on Tuesday.
A major deciding factor -- the health of Jordan Derkack. Injuring a different leg in each of the first two tournament games, the NEC Player of the Year played in all but four minutes in the tournament, but was visibly in pain throughout the semifinal matchup against Le Moyne. Derkack finished the game scoring six points on two-for-nine shooting. It's clear that whatever is ailing him is affecting his shooting form.
Few come as tougher as Derkack, but he cannot be expected to play on Tuesday anywhere close to one-hundred percent. That being said, expect NEC Rookie of the Year Adam Clark to shoulder more responsibility on offense. In the NEC tournament, Clark has stepped up, scoring a combined 42 points on 14-for-25 shooting, including making 14 of his 16 free throw attempts.
Tuesday night is anybody's guess, but the final includes two of the conference's toughest and most physical teams.
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