America East: Maine
Last year’s record: 13-17
Rookie head coach Chris Markwood quietly led Maine to one of the best first-year efforts in the nation after the Black Bears finished their first double-digit win season in a decade.
The biggest shift under Markwood has been the defense: anchored by Montana State transfer Kellen Tynes, the nation’s steals leader and reigning America East Defensive Player of the Year, Maine finished with the fifth highest steal rate in the nation. Tynes, sophomore guard Jaden Clayton, fifth-year returnee Ja’shonte Wright-McLeish and junior forward Kristians Feierbergs all return to the starting lineup and combined to average nearly seven-and-a-half steals per game.
To help bolster the offense, Maine added transfers Okay Djamgouz (6’5 from Drake), Quion Burns (6’6 from LIU) and AJ Lopez (6’5 from New Hampshire), all of which are shooters with size – all averaged 35%+ from three – while 6’10 Manhattan grad transfer Adam Cisse will help remedy Maine’s offensive rebounding woes.
With their returning core solidifying the defense and the transfer additions adding depth, Maine is a dark horse top-three program in the America East, should one of Bryant or UMass Lowell falter.
Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure
Last year’s record: 14-18
Heralded as one of the most under-appreciated coaches in college basketball, Mark Schmidt was faced last year with an unprecedented challenge of replacing 99.8% of the scoring from the past year. This massive overhaul resulted in the Bonnies finishing with its worst season in fifteen years, caused mostly by the least efficient offense during Schimidt’s tenure.
Considering this, it is a testament to the standards of St. Bonaventure under Schmidt: a 14-18 overall record and a 8-10 slate in conference play feels like a failure, when in actuality isn’t all that bad.
Last season had its share of high points: Daryl Banks III (15.4 ppg) earned an All-Conference Third Team selection, Chad Venning (12.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.4 bpg) had a career year and is now one of the most steady big men in the conference, Yann Farrell earned an All-Rookie team selection providing rebounding and shooting to the power forward position and Moses Flowers (9.3 ppg, 36.7 3P%) was an efficient scorer off the bench.
A weak point of the offense can be pointed at junior point guard Kyrell Luc. An excellent defender and creative passer, Luc’s inefficient shooting (38.2 2P%, 30.4 3P%) combined with his team leading usage rate resulted with too many possessions one-and-done.
To bolster their backcourt, the Bonnies hit the portal and added grad transfers Mika Adams-Woods from Cincinnati and Charles Pride from Bryant.
A thirty minute-per-game player at Cincinnati, Mika Adams-Woods is the lynchpin to Schmidt’s future decisions with guard rotations. A jack-of-all-trades combo guard, Adams-Woods was the Bearcats’ starting shooting guard but soaked up minutes at point guard when starting point guard David DeJulius was on the bench.
Adams-Woods’ ability to play both guard positions puts Kyrell Luc’s role as the cemented full-time point guard in jeopardy.
An important weapon in Jared Grasso’s high-octane Bryant offense for the last four years, Charles Pride is a rare guard who can combine efficiency with volume and is also an excellent rebounder for his size.
Despite his gaudy stats, Pride has never led Bryant in scoring, but is capable in taking over a game if need be based on his ability to make plays and hit clutch shots when the pressure is at its highest.
All in all, the Bonnies are now rich with a quintet of veteran guards that Schmidt now has the luxury to mix and match depending on the game situation, which will allow Schmidt to lengthen his traditionally short rotations.
CAA: Stony Brook
Last year’s record: 11-22
After coaching Stony Brook to a solid 47-38 overall record across their final three seasons in the America East, Geno Ford expected former Sacred Heart point guard Aaron Clarke to help lead the Seawolves as they entered their first season in the CAA.
However, a back injury sidelined Clarke for all but three games, forcing freshman Tony Onyekonwu and sophomore Kaine Roberts to share the starting load. As a result, the pair combined to average nearly four turnovers per game, which was a major catalyst to the team finishing with the second least efficient offense in the conference.
This season, expect the Seawolves to start an all fifth-year eligible backcourt that will feature last year’s leading scorer Tyler Stephenson-Moore (14.3 ppg), Clarke (16.0 ppg, 4.1 apg in his final season at Sacred Heart) and Cornell transfer Dean Noll, who redshirted last year after averaging 10.3 points, 2.7 assists and just 1.5 assists in his final season at Cornell. Onyekonwu will be back as likely the first guard off the bench while Roberts chose to forego his remaining eligibility to go pro.
Seven-footer Keenan Fitzmorris, last year’s starting center (9.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg), is likely to be the fourth fifth-year eligible in the starting lineup while Central Connecticut transfer Andre Snoddy is a nightly double-double threat who will help offset the loss of Frankie Policelli after he decided to take his extra year of eligibility at Charleston, the program that ended Stony Brook’s season in the conference quarterfinals.
Last season, the CAA’s newly minted members – Stony Brook, Monmouth and Hampton – all finished within the bottom-four of the conference standings, proving the challenge of transferring up from their respective previous homes, but few teams in the CAA have the veteran breadth of Stony Brook. It would not surprise if the Seawolves finish the season around the middle of the pack.
Ivy: Columbia
Last year’s record: 7-22
Prior to taking over Columbia’s head coaching position in the 2016-17 season, Jim Engles led NJIT to a Great West Conference regular season championship and finished his tenure with two consecutive twenty win seasons. However, across Engles’ seven seasons at Columbia, the Lions have yet to win more than eleven wins in a season and have won less than thirty percent of their games.
Despite their struggles on the court, Engles and his staff have quietly built up some of the strongest recruiting classes in the Ivy league. Across the last three offseasons, Columbia has reeled in five three-star recruits, according to the 247 database, three of which started for the Lions last season, along with freshman center Zine Eddine Bedri.
The headliner from the 2022 recruiting class is Northfield Mount Hermon graduate Avery Brown, a 6’4 point guard who is Columbia’s highest ranked and most heavily recruited prospect in recent memory. Offered by nine high-major programs earlier in his recruitment, Brown started every game as a true freshman. Averaging close to ten points per game, Brown needs to limit his turnovers, but he possesses the length, strength and talent to develop as one of the top guards in the Ivy.
Brown’s high school teammate Blair Thompson is a 6’7 wing whose 30.5 3P% seems like an aberration after Thompson developed throughout high school as one of the better three-and-D prospects in the 2022 recruiting class.
The highlight of the 2021 class is Dominican Republic native Geronimo Rubio de la Rosa, a 6’2 combo guard who led the Lions in points, rebounds and steals while making impressive strides in his offensive efficiency (50.5 2P%, 37.0 3P%, 88.8 FT%, 1.9 turnovers per game). He joined the Lions alongside three-star wing Noah Robledo, who has battled injuries but has shot 38% from three throughout his career.
Also from Northfield Mount Hermon, Richard Nweke, is the most touted recruit from the 2023 class. A 6’8 three-star prospect, Nweke is renowned for his aggressiveness, rebounding and defense, all attributes that will provide balance to the program.
Combining the overall talent and Engles’ winning history at NJIT, the 2023-24 season is primed for Columbia to finally take the next step and surprise this season.
MAAC: Canisius
Last year’s record: 10-20
Vaunted basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy has attempted to create an objective metric for a team’s “luck” based on a team’s overall record compared to the expected record generated from his famed website Kenpom.com.
According to that source, only 22 teams in the NCAA had worse “luck” than Canisius, namely due to the fact that eight of their twenty losses were by five or less points.
Bad luck, and more importantly, the fact that the Golden Griffins were one of the few teams in the conference least affected by the transfer portal, makes Canisius a prime team to surprise in the MAAC.
Overall, five players who started ten or more games return and leading the Golden Griffins is sophomore point guard Tahj Staveskie, a surprisingly complete guard considering his relative lack of experience. If his three-point shot improves (30.1 3P%), an All-MAAC selection will soon be on the horizon.
Last year’s leading scorer Jordan Henderson and steady bench weapon Jamir Moultrie both graduate, but the Golden Griffins are rich with returning guards and wings to sustain the synergy of head coach Reggie Witherspoon’s offensive style that is centered around swift and secure ball movement and strong shooting.
With Jacco Fritz, who was arguably the best passing big in the MAAC, transferring to Hofstra and George Maslennikov graduating, Canisius’ upside could lie in their new look frontcourt that will feature Jacco’s younger brother, Youri, and Georgia State transfer Joe Jones III, a Buffalo native who battled injuries throughout his career, but brings defensive intensity and a steady low-post presence. Jones III is one of my breakout picks in the conference.
NEC: Central Connecticut
Last year’s record: 10-22
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils proudly hang banners celebrating their past – most recently during the Howie Dickenman era that is highlighted by three tournament appearances, with their most recent NEC championship back in 2007 – but Detrick Gymnasium pines for updated additions to their historic accolades.
Playing in a conference with different tournament champions in each of the last six years, with four departing and three incoming schools in that same interim, parity in the Northeast Conference is expected.
That being said, combining the retention of talent and the addition of exciting new pieces, CCSU has a very strong shot to bring the NEC crown back to the Nutmeg State.
Entering his third year at the helm, current head coach Patrick Sellers has brought hope back to the Blue Devils’ faithful, guiding the Blue Devils to their best conference record in nearly a decade.
In his first season at CCSU after transferring from Binghamton, Kellen Amos was an instant success in New Britain, scoring 24 points in his season debut against UMass. At 6’7 190, Amos played most of his minutes at the 3, and will look to reprise the same role this upcoming season.
Renowned for his offensive abilities, Amos’ greatest attribute is his shooting, finishing last year with a 53.9 2P% and 35.2 3P%, however Amos has the length and instincts to attack the rim, evident by his 63.2% conversion rate at the rim, which included 31 dunks this season and set alley-oop plays in the half-court set.
Simply put, Amos’ offensive impact is clear as day: in conference play, when Amos was on the floor, CCSU scored 104.2 points/100 possessions compared to just 94.8 points when Amos was off the court.
With increased strength, toughness and commitment to playing on defense, Amos can continue to grow into a pure five-tool contributor.
While Andre Snoddy was a consistent double-double threat for the Blue Devils’ last year, their addition of Fairfield grad transfer Allan Jeanne-Rose brings more versatility, athleticism and arguably more upside to the power forward position this season.
As part-time starter throughout his first three seasons, Jeanne-Rose broke out in his senior season starting every game, solidifying himself as one of the best two-way slashers in the MAAC.
On defense, his best attributes are his switchability and off-ball rim protection while Jeanne-Rose's best offensive trait is breaking down the defense and getting to the bucket, evidenced by finishing last season with the 12th best free throw rate in the nation and a strong 55.5 2P% and 74 FT%.
Simply put, the forward combo of Jeanne-Rose and Amos will be the Blue Devils’ strength. Don’t be surprised if the duo average for a combined thirty points per game and finish as All-NEC selections en route to the Blue Devils’ best season under Sellers.
Patriot: Holy Cross
Last year’s record: 10-22
Recency bias makes it hard to imagine any other team besides Colgate winning consistently in the Patriot League, but throughout the early aughts, Ralph Willard led the Holy Cross Crusaders to four Patriot League Championships.
Since Willard’s retirement after the 2008-09 season, Holy Cross has finished with just one winning season and is currently looking to climb above their current nadir after Brett Nelson meekly led the program to only 27 wins over the last four seasons.
In his place, Holy Cross hired former Bucknell coach Dave Paulsen, who led the Bison as they began their ascension as the kings of the Patriot following Willard’s retirement, earning two tournament bids and a 78-25 overall record between the 2010-11 and 2012-13 seasons.
After seven years at Bucknell and a six-year stint at George Mason, Paulsen was most recently an assistant at Fordham before returning back to the helm with Holy Cross.
Under Nelson, the Crusaders offense sputtered, namely due to the team eschewing a consistent perimeter game despite double-digit scorers Will Batchelder, Joe Octave and Bo Montgomery all shooting north of 34% from three. All three return, as well as starting wing Caleb Kenney.
Colgate still remains the cream of the conference and Lehigh has patiently built up their current core, but expect Paulsen to coach up the returning and new pieces in Worcester.
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