Xavier Scouting Report Prior to Their New Year's Eve Matchup Hosting UConn

 Xavier: 11-3 Kenpom Rating: 28 out of 363

Best wins:

• 84-74 v #21 West Virginia

• Souley Boum: 23 points, 7 assists, 5-8 FGs, 11-14 FTs

• Jack Nunge: 17 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocks, 7-9 FGs

• 90-83 v #36 Florida (neutral location)

• Solely Boum: 22 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 7-8 FTs

• Colby Jones: 22 points, 4-5 3P, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals

• 83-79 @ #57 St. John’s (last night’s game)

• Jack Nunge: 23 points, 10-14 FGs, 2-2 from 3, 12 rebounds, 3 assists

• Souley Boum: 17 points, 4-11 FGs, 8-8 FTs, 6 rebounds and assists, 2 steals

Losses (no “bad” losses):

• 79-81 v #19 Indiana

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: 30 points

• Xavier Johnson: 23 points

• 64-71 v #16 Duke (neutral)

• Xavier 37.1 2p%

• Jeremy Roach: 21 points, 9-15 from field

• 84-88 v #10 Gonzaga

• Gonzaga 13-24 from three

Currently on a seven game winning streak with wins over West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Seton Hall and St. John’s

OFFENSE:  8th in efficiency

• 3rd in A/FGM (68.6%)

• 3rd in 3p% (40.8%)

• But only 317th in 3PA/FGA (30.9%)

• 29th in tempo (15.8 seconds/possession)

• 35th in non-steal TO rate (7.4%)

• But 326th! in steal rate (11.6)

• FWIW: Fremantle (2.8 TOs) and Boum (2.2 TOs) lead team

• 38th in 2p% (55.0%)

• 104th in both 

• offensive rebounding % (31.4%)

• FTA/FGA (34.0%)

DEFENSE: 78th in efficiency

• 33rd in 3PA/FGA (31.4%)

• But allow 37.4 3p% (318th)

• 38th fastest defensive tempo (16.5 seconds/possession)

• 60th in opponents’ offensive rebounding prevention (25.2%)

• 89th in opponents’ 2p% (47.0%)

• ~ median in

• Turnover rate (18.4%)

• FTA/FGA (30.3%)

• Bottom third percentile in A/FGM (53.8%)

With Sean Miller back at the helm, Xavier returns his signature pack-line defense, which was extra compressed in the St. John’s game considering their lack of shooters, especially in the backcourt. Miller’s defense is designed to decrease dribble penetration and always keeps the post-defender well in front of the low post guy, so in theory, more perimeter options should be available and, in general, we might see a similar offensive attack from what we saw UConn settle with against Villanova.

Like other pack-line defenses out there (Virginia, Liberty and Charlotte come to mind), there will not be a lot of pressure on the ball and ball movement on the perimeter should be plentiful.

Based on this, I’d expect another slow game from Newton and the bigs, with more contributions from better shooters (Hawkins, Calcaterra, Karaban, Alleyne). Also, the vision and passing creativity of Jackson and Karaban will be huge to help navigate the pack and find interior looks.

With just three double-digit scoring games in his short UConn tenure, I expect Alleyne to have his best game of the season, finally showcasing the steady, efficient shooting he was so well known for at Virginia Tech.

Via KenPom:

For the last four games against non-cupcakes, Xavier has essentially played a seven-man rotation with heavy reliance on the starters (26.9% bench minutes, 279th in the nation). 

When Hunter subs in for Nunge, Xavier essentially plays with two non-shooting bigs, considering Freemantle is shooting threes at a career low rate (0.6 3PA this season vs. 1.5 3PA last season and 3.7 the year before). Speaking of Freemantle, he’s looked the most strong, in shape and most healthy in his career, making him a more viable down-low defender in addition to his offensive game.

Claude reminds me a lot of a young Paul Scruggs: a big, strong combo guard who is not afraid to attack the rim, but susceptible to poor shot selection.

Speaking of Scruggs, some have said (I share this opinion as well) that his omnipresence on Xavier’s offense was an overall detriment to the team, and so far, there’s a clear upside on offense with the addition of Souley Boum. Boum is a long, ambidextrous point guard who can score anywhere and uses his length and quickness to get easy buckets down low. 

Colby Jones has continued his maturation as one of the best players in the Big East. A versatile wing who can do a bit of everything, Jones does much of his work inside and has an awareness to kick out for open shots when needed. When he drives, watch for Kunkel and Nunge to move to the perimeter and then Freemantle ready for the quick dish underneath and/or the offensive rebound.

UConn has yet to play this season against a center like Nunge, whose poise, versatility and length hasn’t been matched with any of the other talented bigs they’ve seen so far.

Overall, Xavier is arguably UConn’s toughest matchup this season. While UConn will obviously be favored, I’d bet it will be their lowest spread of the season so far, and for good reason.