A Preview of Iowa State Prior to Sunday's Matchup Against UConn

Iowa State: 5-0

Kenpom Rating: 42

Previous games: 

• Early season cupcake wins over IUPUI, North Carolina A&T and Milwaukee

• 11/24 win over Villanova 81-79 in OT

• Gabe Kalscheur: 23 points, 5 threes made, 4 rebounds, 3 assists

• Osun Osunniyi: 17 points, 8-10 from the field, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks

• 11/25 win over North Carolina 70-65

• Caleb Grill: 31 points, 7 threes made, no TOs

• Jaren Holmes: 22 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals

OFFENSE:  79th in efficiency

• 15th in offensive rebounding

• Don’t shoot a ton of threes (220th in 3PA ratio, and shoot 30.4%)

• Efficient inside the arc (53.7 2p%, 79th in the nation)

• Don’t get the the line often (294th in FTA/FGA)

• Good ball movement (59.3% FGMs are assisted, 45th in the nation)

DEFENSE: 21st in efficiency

• 2nd highest turnover ratio (30.5%!!)

• Every other defensive metric ranks in the top-ten, except for…

• Teams get to the line against them (44.6% FTA/FGA is 334th lowest in the nation)

What I love about their head coach TJ Otzelberger is that he’s not a system guy, he coaches to his talent. At South Dakota State, his teams played fast, shot a ton of threes but were pretty bad defensively. At UNLV, he had Bryce Hamilton, an incredible bucket getter, and played more of an iso-based, inside the arc halfcourt offense. 

Prior to Otzelberger’s hiring, Iowa State was a dumpster fire under Steve Prohm, going 2-22 in his last year and 12-20 the year before. Year 1 with Otzelberger was 22-13, an insane turnaround.

In year 2 at Ames, the identity of Iowa State is clear: hard-working, tough with great guard play, a solid rotation of bigs and a stretch forward to help with opening up space inside.

This will be a rock fight. First team to 65 points wins. 

Another game where I like the matchup. Jaren Holmes and Osun Osunniyi are an excellent inside/outside duo with a lot of experience together from their four years together in Olean, but UConn did a nice job limiting their effectiveness when playing the Bonnies last season: Holmes scored 19, but gave up 5 turnovers. Osunniyi had 10 points, but no blocks. 

Based on an excellent deep dive Q&A with Otzelberger from The Athletic their head coach builds his team defensively by how they generate pressure on an effort based defense. Having Karaban at the 4 allows Hurley to regularly put out four guys who can handle the ball well, something that North Carolina does not have playing two bigs (Bacot and Nance combined for seven turnovers).

This is a game where I like Jackson’s ability to do all the little things well: I imagine a game where he finishes with like 4 points, 8 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks, plus lockdown defense shutting down Holmes.