The Tuesday night tilt at John J. Lee Amphitheater matched up two of the region’s best mid-major programs, but when time expired, the final score made it clear which direction each program is heading.
Trailing by three at the half, the Yale Bulldogs outscored the Vermont Catamounts 46 to 14 in the second half to finish the game with a final score of 73-44.
Without a defender to match the size and athleticism of Matt Knowling, the Yale junior dominated Vermont inside the arc, shooting 10-for-13 with many of his points scored from his smooth, left-handed drives to the basket.
Often attracting extra attention from the help defenders, Knowling’s big day helped open up the floor for Yale’s perimeter options, most notably sophomore shooting guard John Poulakidas who scored ten points, showcasing not only his smooth lefty stroke, but his scrappy willingness to fight for offensive rebounds and secure second chance points.
Known as one of the better rim-protectors in the Ivy, senior forward EJ Jarvis finished with ten points, scoring double-digit points in consecutive games for just the third time in his career. With only eight three point attempts prior to this season, Jarvis connected on his only three-point attempt, showcasing his steadily diversifying offensive game.
Although finishing the game with a modest box score, sophomore point guard Bez Mgeng is developing as one of the best glue guys in the Ivy. At 6’4 195 and with a will-filled motor, Mbeng has the length and gumption to be one of the most intimidating perimeter defenders in the league, helping smother Vermont’s leading scorer Dylan Penn to six points on just five field goal attempts.
Four Division 1 games into the season, it has become clear how Yale will win its games: tough defense forcing opponents to use the clock (average opponents’ possession length is 18.4 seconds, good for 42nd in the nation); defensive rebounding; interior scoring.
While Knowling and Jarvis have started to develop their perimeter game, shooting will continue to be Yale’s biggest question mark. Poulakidas (13 for 29, 44.8%) and junior August Mahoney (10 for 23, 43.5%) are the Bulldogs most consistent shooting threats but the team can use Mbeng (3 for 19, 15.8%) to at least generate more attention towards the perimeter to help open up space. One for five last night, most of Mbeng misses were forced shots out of rhythm and perhaps more catch-and-shoot opportunities in future games could set him up for shooting success.
Unfortunately for Vermont, the Catamounts 1-5 start to the season is not just a side effect of playing, according to KenPom, the 48th most difficult schedule: there are clear deficiencies that will make it hard for the team to fend off Bryant or even UMass-Lowell for the America East title.
Most notably, the team’s shooting is its weakest detriment. The Catamounts’ 48.2 eFG% is lower than any season’s finish under John Becker. In comparison, the Catamounts have finished three of the last six seasons ranked within the top-20 of eFG%, an achievement that will not be met this year.
Helping fill the void left behind by Ben Shungu, Bellarmine grad transfer Dylan Penn has been an effective interior scorer and rim attacker (12.5 ppg, 53.2 2p%, 3.2 fta), but his 0.5 threes made per game match his career averages of 0.4 threes made per game, taking away a major dimension that Vermont guards have possessed for years: a perimeter threat.
Case in point, last season, Shungu made 1.9 threes per game at 41.4%. Overall, last year’s roster played only one regular, Robin Duncan, who shot under 31% from three.
Without capable shooters, opponents’ defenses can focus more attention on Penn inside the arc while talented distributors like Robin Duncan and Finn Sullivan lose their effectiveness and are forced to play more offense in isolation.
After the tough loss, Vermont’s schedule allows for a quick turnaround: a Friday opening round tilt against Ball State (252nd defensive efficiency) in the first round of the Nassau Championship is projected to be its weakest opponent since playing Brown opening night. The game sets up a potential matchup against North Texas, who perennially possess one of the toughest defenses in the nation.
Future non-conference matchups against Colgate, Toledo and Miami (FL), all top-100 teams, will battle test the Catamounts for America East play where Vermont, Bryant and UMass-Lowell all with a fighter’s chance to finish atop the conference.
As of today, Yale is the team to beat in the Ivy, but Princeton’s Tosan Evbuomwan is not only an Ivy Player of the Year candidate, but also a capable defensive matchup to help neutralize Knowling down low. Penn is also much better than its 2-4 record: all of its four losses were against top-90 teams (Iona, Missouri, Towson, West Virginia). Like the America East, the Ivy looks like a three-horse race.
Nice recap
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