Friday, August 12, 2022

2022-23 Big East Preview: Picking a Breakout Performer from Each Team

Butler: Simas Lukosius, 6’6 225 sophomore wing

Ending last season on a high note, exploding for 27 points and 7 rebounds against Xavier in the Big East tournament, it’s almost shocking to learn that Lukosius averaged only 6.8 points per game last season. Entering his sophomore season, Lukosius is looking to bring consistency to his output: while scoring fourteen or more points in six conference games, he also had eleven conference games scoring five points or less. 


With Aaron Thompson, Bryce Golden, Bryce Nze, Ty Groce and Bo Hodges all gone, Lukosius will be counted on to shoulder a more consistent offensive role, especially utilizing his creativity, vision and passing skills to feed rim-attacker Chuck Harris and shooters Ali Ali and Eric Hunter. The Lithuanian’s 55.8 2p% during conference play was good for 13th in the Big East while carrying over his 17.1% defensive rebounding rate will help improve Butler’s transition offense. His 89.1 ft% suggests that Lukosius has the ability to improve his outside shooting (28.6 3p%) and if that is achieved, there’s a good chance Lukosius will be Butler’s second-best offensive weapon behind Harris. 


UConn: Jordan Hawkins, 6’5 195 sophomore guard


Named to the Big East All-Freshman team, Jordan Hawkins is anticipated to take the biggest jump in a UConn roster that features a variety of young talent ready to take the next step. Penciled into a starting position, Hawkins’ above the rim athleticism, soft shot and three-point range has fans drooling over what he can be this upcoming season, especially after gaining 20 pounds since his freshman season.


Considering that Hawkins played just 12 games last season at over 15 minutes per game, it’s safe to presume that he lacked rhythm: shooting a 37.9 2p% and a 33.3 3p% should improve with more time to get into a flow and added strength to finish strongly at the rim. It’s a safe bet to expect Hawkins to finish the season as a double-digit scorer and one of the team’s most clutch offensive producers.


Creighton: Arthur Kaluma, 6’7 220 sophomore forward


For those who have read my other 2022-2023 breakout articles for the A-10 and the MAAC, I usually don’t include a full-time starting double-digit scorer as a “breakout” candidate, but Kaluma has the talent, athleticism and drive to take a Justin Lewis-esque jump from his freshman season straight to the All-Big East First Team.


Over the last sixteen games of the season, Kaluma’s productivity improved even as their schedule got tougher:


First fifteen games: 8.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 0.5 threes made per game, 20.0 3p%

Last sixteen games: 12.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.3 threes made per game, 29.9 3p%


Considering that Creighton has little proven depth behind center Ryan Kalkbrenner, Kaluma has a chance of playing some minutes as a small-ball 5, further increasing his value as a key piece who can play in all situations and provide more variety to the types of rotations McDermott can piece together.


DePaul: Jalen Terry, 6’0 165 junior point guard


Sharing the court last season with do-everything combo guard Javon Freeman-Liberty (45th nationally and 1st in the Big East with 30.3% usage rate) and two-way forward David Jones (26.4% usage rate ranked 219th nationally and 4th in the Big East), Jalen Terry was one of the least utilized point guards in the Big East. In fact, compared to the other top-nine leaders for minutes played on DePaul’s roster, Jalen Terry’s 16.2% usage rate ranked the third lowest. 


Looking at Terry’s career efficiency numbers makes him a viable candidate for more responsibility on offense: 44.2 2p%, 34.0 3p%, 83.3 ft%, and a 2.3:1.5 assist to turnover ratio. Playing alongside a lights-out shooter like Umoja Gibson (13.3 points, 39.0 3p% at Oklahoma) and a quick slasher like Caleb Murphy (11.4 points, 92% of FGAs from inside the arc at South Florida) provide Terry with more assist opportunities in addition to a brighter green light to shoot.


Georgetown: Brandon Murray, 6’5 210 sophomore guard


Last season at LSU, Brandon Murray’s offensive ceiling was limited due to him sharing the court with first-rounder Tari Eason, senior stud Darius Days and aggressive rim attacking senior Xavier Pinson, but his physicality and defensive versatility fit in perfectly with Will Wade’s elite defensive squad.


Blessed with similar strength and frame as former one-and-done Hoya freshman Animu Mohammed, Brandon Murray is arguably the most promising incoming Georgetown transfer, with much better defensive potential than Mohammed and a versatile offensive game that profiles as a matchup nightmare with his strength, scoring, and distributing. 


Few seats in high-major basketball are hotter than Patrick Ewing’s after last year’s 6-25 record and historically poor retention of talent, so finding a spark in new players like Murray could help catapult him from being “one of the guys” at LSU to “the man” at Georgetown.


Marquette: Stevie Mitchell, 6’2 195 sophomore guard


With veteran guards Darryl Morsell and Greg Elliott elsewhere, there is a golden opportunity for the guards from the ‘21 and ‘22 classes to step up into a major role in the backcourt. Combo guard Stevie Mitchell is my pick to earn a starting role thanks to his ability to break down defenses, create his own offense and score from all three levels with enough vision and awareness to dish with the space he creates, all important traits needed for a guard in Shaka Smart’s fast-paced offense.


Playing just under 11 minutes per game last season, Mitchell’s field goal shooting efficiency was good (51.9 2p%, 35.0 3p%) and he showed glimpses of his two-way ability, especially when looking at his per-40 minute stats: 10.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.6 steals. His comfort at the free-throw line (56.0 ft%) needs to sharply improve in order to be counted on in late-game situations, but his good shooting form and a full season under his belt all point to much better efficiency on the line this upcoming season.


Providence: Bryce Hopkins, 6’7 220 sophomore forward


The Friars have four starting spots up for grabs and the former top-40 Kentucky commit is one of the safest bets to start for the Friars. Playing  just 181 total minutes in his first season at Kentucky, his per-40 numbers (13.3p, 8.6r, 1.1 threes made at a 31.3 3p% clip) hints towards his potential as a strong and athletic combo forward whose physicality and IQ profiles as a perfect Cooley recruit as the coach loves versatility. 


Seton Hall: Kadary Richmond, 6’6 210 junior guard


Similar to Arthur Kaluma, Kadary Richmond has the talent to jump into the All-Big East First Team conversation entering his junior year. Already ranking within the top-70 nationally in assist rate (31.5%) and steal rate (3.7%), Richmond’s top-20 Big East ranking in free throw rate (31.4%, 19th in the Big East) and FT% (78.2% is 11th in the Big East) preview what Richmond’s ceiling could be if he earns some of the shots available with all-time great Jared Rhoden and sharpshooter Bryce Aiken graduated.


Finishing last season with 8.8 points per game, a 41.7 2p% and 34.5 3p%, an increase in shot opportunities should make Richmond a double-digit scorer in his junior season, helping him become one of the most prolific stat-stuffers and one of the most feared two-way guards in the Big East.


St. John’s: AJ Storr, 6’6 200 freshman guard


Last season, St. John’s three-point shooting (33.5 3p%, 181st in the nation) and free-throw shooting (67.7 ft%, 305th in the nation) were two of their offense’s biggest weaknesses. With Posh Alexander (career 26.0 3p%) and Andre Curbelo (career 16.9 3p%) as non-threats from deep, AJ Storr has immediate potential as a much needed catch-and-shoot option in his freshman season. 


Playing a postgraduate season last year at IMG Academy, Storr earned team MVP honors after he averaged 22.8 points per game with a wildly efficient 60 fg%. A floor spacer like AJ Storr will help open up the floor for Alexander, Curbelo and DePaul transfer David Jones, making him a valuable guard in the rotation.


Villanova: Cam Whitmore, 6’6 220 freshman wing


Expected to be Villanova’s first one-and-done freshman since Tim Thomas was taken seventh in the 1997 NBA draft, All-American five-star freshman wing Cam Whitmore will be one of the best defenders in the Big East


Blessed with elite athleticism, a physical build, a 6’9 wingspan and a high motor, Whitmore’s offensive game is currently mostly limited to using his explosiveness to attack the rim and scoring on transition, but his shooting stroke and handle show promise and are expected to improve as the season progresses. 


Xavier: Kam Craft, 6’6 188 freshman guard


Even though the Musketeers return 74% of their scoring from last season, new head coaches like to highlight their recruits and I expect Sean Miller to have Kam Craft in his starting lineup by mid-season. Recommitting with Xavier after Travis Steele’s firing in March, Craft has a reputation of being one of the best shooters in the ‘22 class.


With the length to play at either the 2 or 3 spots, Craft’s NBA range will help open up the floor for rim-attackers Boum and Jones. 


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