Only sixteen months ago, Oral Roberts brought on the Madness becoming the second fifteen-seed ever to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The star of the Golden Eagles was Max Abmas, a lights-out scorer with NBA range and rare three-level efficiency. This season, not only is Abmas returning for his senior season but also two starters from the Sweet Sixteen roster (Kareem Thompson and Carlos Jurgens) as well as their sixth man (DeShang Weaver).
This level of roster continuity across two seasons is rare, especially for a mid-major program whose roster faces the constant allure of the transfer portal. Comparing last year’s team to this season’s team, Oral Roberts is returning seven rotation players and 90% of their scoring from its sixtieth most efficient offense, according to KenPom. Most impressively, the Golden Eagles were elite at preventing turnovers, with a 13.5% rate, ranking fifth lowest nationally. Their roster continuity will also help retain their elite offensive work on the perimeter: according to KenPom, their 46.2% 3PA/FGA ratio ranked nineteenth nationally while their 37.2 team 3p% ranked twenty-fourth.
With so many players returning, there’s a bit of a double-edged sword: it’s an exciting group offensively, but a challenged group defensively. In each of head coach Paul Mills’ five seasons in Tulsa, Oral Roberts has had poor defense, but last year’s squad was easily Mills’ worst defense during the Max Abmas era. Their effective opponents’ field goal percentage was ranked 227th in the nation and their turnover rate of 12.7% was the second worst in the league.
Keep in mind, generating turnovers is not the end all be all for NCAA defenses: for example, Creighton was ranked as KenPom’s seventeenth most efficient defense, but generated turnovers at a 15.5% rate, good for the 8th percentile nationally. However, if opponents are converting shots at a high clip and not giving up the ball, it’s a recipe for a track meet.
Let’s be realistic: Oral Roberts will not be a good defensive team this year, but they only need to be “good enough” to help retake their claim as one of the more dangerous mid-majors in the nation. For example, the Sweet Sixteen team's effective opponents’ field goal percentage was ranked 175th in the nation and their turnover rate of 18.4% was ranked 194th. Not good numbers, but a significant improvement compared to last season.
The key reason for Golden Eagles fans to be optimistic about the prospect of their team’s defense improving is thanks to the overall length and defensive commitment shared within their three-man transfer class.
At 7’3 215 with a 7’6 wingspan, senior big Connor Vanover is poised to be the Golden Eagles’ best rim protector since Kendrick Moore two decades ago. Starting 42 games across his freshman season at Cal and his sophomore season at Arkansas, Vanover was limited to just 7.5 minutes per game last season, so a move to Tulsa will possibly provide the fresh start he needs tag-teaming at the 5 with Lufile.
The five spot last season was pretty much devoid of rim protection, with Lufile and Francis Lacis averaging a combined 1.3 blocks per game. With Lufile’s block rate 50% higher than Lacis’, the Golden Eagles retain the better rim protector of the two while Vanover’s career 9.1% block rate is over five times higher than Lacis’.
Clearly, the turnover (pun intended) from Lacis to Vanover will vastly improve the Golden Eagles’ interior defense, especially when Mills can run a lineup with Vanover at the 5 and Weaver at the 4. Weaver led the team last season with a 5.5% block rate and ranked within the top-four of the Summit in block rate each of the last two seasons. While Vanover is not close to the outside shooter that Lacis was (career 36.4 3p%), Vanover shot a 34.0 3p% in his first two seasons (about one three made per game) but struggled last year in limited time (1 for 13).
Playing the last four seasons at UT-Arlington, Patrick Mwamba adds length to the forward position, standing at 6’7 with a 6’11 wingspan. Under Mills, it’s rare for the Golden Eagles to take in a player who is a defense-first, below-average shooter (career 42.1 2p%, 31.6 3p%, 63.4 ft%), but Mwamba’s length, athleticism, motor and defensive drive will fit in perfectly as the team’s much needed glue guy. Mwamba’s 2.7% steal rate last season was 1.0% higher than any other Golden Eagle, so a rotation of Weaver and Mwamba at the 4 allows Mills to have a capable defensive forward on the floor at all times.
Arguably the most intriguing piece of this offseason’s transfer class is Arizona State transfer Demari Williams. According to 247’s composite rankings, Williams ranked as the 186th best prospect of the ‘21 class, fielding high-major offers from Baylor and TCU. The 6’6 210 Williams is a self-described combo guard and his 6’11 wingspan offers switchable potential on defense. Out of their three transfers, Williams will likely face the highest competition for playing time, but his skill and length combo projects him as a versatile 3 in the future.
Like many mid-majors capable of upsetting good teams, Oral Roberts’ non-conference schedule is mostly incomplete as of mid-July, but a 12/16 hosting of Missouri State (was 20th nationally in offensive efficiency) will be an excellent early test for their retinkered defense.
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