Since coming back to his alma mater and taking over as the head coach prior to the start of the 2014-2015 season, the Dan D’Antoni led Marshall Thundering Herd are known for their frantically fast tempo, positionless basketball and a lot of shots from three.
In each of D’Antoni’s seasons at Marshall, their offensive possessions have ranked within the top-eight quickest in the nation, on a given season averaging somewhere between 13.8 and 15.4 seconds per possession.
This aesthetically pleasing and fun style of play has also led to success: between the 2015-2016 and 2020-2021 seasons, Marshall had an overall record of 117-78 and earned a 13-seed in the 2017-2018 tournament.
However, the 2021-2022 season was Marshall’s worst season since D’Antoni’s first season at the helm, finishing 12-21 with a dreadful 5-18 finish. In that season, the Thundering Herd decreased their three-point percentage from 36.0% (70th in the nation) to 30.1% (325th in the nation). Another major contributing factor was that their offensive turnover rate increased from 16.3% (44th in the nation) to 18.1% (155th in the nation).
A big reason for this statistical shift was that Marshall did not have a suitable replacement for point guard Jarrod West transferring to Louisville. In the 2020-2021 season, West was counted on for scoring, shooting, and an ability to make plays while limiting mistakes (12.5p, 6a, 2.1 TO, 40.8 3p%). In the 2021-2022 season, West’s off-ball guard, Andrew Taylor moved to point guard, wing Taevion Kinsey moved from 3-guard to 2-guard and a collection of forwards were miscasted as the 3-guard. Not only did this personnel shift affect the team’s shooting but it also miscast secondary ball-handlers to more primary roles, affecting the flow of the offense. To put it in perspective, during Kinsey’s freshman season, the 6’5 185 Kinsey played a vast majority of his minutes at the 4 and during that season, Marshall had the 27th lowest offensive turnover percentage.
Despite Marshall’s rough season, there’s reason for optimism as the team enters its first season in the Sun Belt.
Overall, there’s excellent continuity with nine rotation players returning, representing 82% of their scoring from last year.
Most importantly, Taevion Kinsey is returning for his fifth-year of eligibility. Already an all-time great (his 1935 total career points is fifth most in Marshall history), Kinsey was arguably the best athlete in the C-USA and will again be arguably the best athlete in the Sun Belt. Kinsey fills the stat sheet, averaging 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists last season. His 18.3 3p% was a major disappointment, but considering his 33.5% career average prior to the season makes it easier to file last season as an aberration.
The addition of VMI transfer Kamdyn Curfman will help offset the loss of Jarrod West last offseason. The 6’1 186 senior provides efficient scoring (15.6 points, 52.4 2p%, 39.2 3p% with 3.6 makes per game) and an impressive assist/turnover ratio (2.4:1.2). There’s also a bit of system fit too: VMI plays fast (67th quickest offensive possession length) and shoots a ton of threes (54.8% of their shot attempts were threes, tops in the nation). The addition of Curfman will also allow Kinsey to slot back to the 3-guard, which is his more comfortable spot and also allows D’Antoni to roll 30+ mpg with three guards who can all bring the ball up with pace, catch-and-shoot and smoothly distribute.
Andrew Taylor is the third guard in Marshall’s projected starting backcourt. As mentioned earlier, the 6’3 188 senior was the team’s defacto point guard last season, averaging 14.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals per game. While his counting stats improved, parts of Taylor’s efficiency weakened: his turnovers increased from 2 to 3 per game and his three point shooting decreased from 41.6% to 32.8%. The addition of Curfman should help with Taylor’s efficiency as defenses will have headaches organizing their defense against the three high-level guards.
While the combination of Taylor/Curfman/Kinsey will make up for three-fifths of the starting lineup, four returning three-star recruits from the ‘19 and ‘20 classes will compete for the remaining two spots.
A part of Marshall’s ‘20 recruiting class, Obinna Anochili-Killen, ranked by 247 as the seventh-highest recruit in Marshall history, showcased his potential last year providing three-level scoring, rebounding and rim-protection, averaging 11.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, 57.0 2p%, 31.8 3p% with one made three-pointer per game and 2.6 blocks per game. It’s a sure bet that the 6’8 220 Obinna Anochili-Killen will continue his starting role from last year, either at the 4 or the small ball five.
David Early, another three-star recruit from the ‘20 class, entered the program with promise and hype, ranked as Marshall’s thirteen-highest ranked recruit, according to 247. Blessed with a unique 6’4 235 build, Early played minutes at all three guard positions last year, providing three-point range, vision and IQ to make tough passes. Last season, about three-quarters of his shot attempts were from three, which he connected at a 33.9% clip, and he averaged 1.5 assists per game. Starting eleven games and averaging 18.8 minutes per game, Early is a candidate to start next season or play close to starter minutes off the bench.
The two three-star recruits from the ‘19 class are 6’7 210 forward Marko Sarenac and 7’0 250 big Goran Miladinovic. Starting 25 games and averaging fifteen minutes-per-game last season, the Montenegro native Miladinovic was active on the glass (3.8 rebounds/game) and began to flash his stretch potential (8 for 24 from three). The Serbian born Sarenac played similar minutes-per-game providing Marshall its most efficient three point shooter in the regular rotation. Converting at a 37.2% rate, a whopping 91% of his shot attempts from last year were from deep where he averaged about 1.1 threes per game. Both seniors are expected to continue to be important rotation pieces this upcoming season.
The Herd also return a pair of returning sophomores who will bolster the frontcourt depth this upcoming season. The 6’9 225 Aymeric Toussaint and 6’9 210 Chase McKey both played around ten minutes per game last season and provided Marshall with efficient low-post offense (a combined 68.4 fg%). Fellow sophomore Kyle Braun played a total 197 minutes last season chipping in as a willing three-point shooter (76% of shot attempts were from deep) and distributor (3.4 assists per 40 minutes). The 6’9 180 Wyatt Fricks redshirted last season after surgery on his right knee. Blessed with impressive range, Fricks is also dedicated on the boards and protects the rim.
The two-man ‘22 class is headlined by Jacob Connor, a 6’8 195 forward from Dayton, Ohio. Ranked by 247 as the #57 small forward of his class, Connor picked Marshall over seventeen other D1 programs. Playing high school ball at Archbishop Alter, Connor was a jack-of-all-trades, averaging 10.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 4.2 blocks and 2.2 steals per game, a statistical profile that meshes perfectly with Marshall’s positionless brand of basketball. With so much returning talent, it is hard to see Connor getting a lot of run this season, but he oozes with long-term potential.
Connor’s ‘22 classmate is 7’1 242 big Micah Handlogten from South Lake Christian Academy in North Carolina. Considered by some as North Carolina’s premier “modern big man”, Handlogten can protect the rim and knock down perimeter jumpers, a juicy combo that will play up at Marshall. With four capable bigs ahead of him in the depth chart, Handlogten is a project and has a prime opportunity to develop at his own pace.
Some people might look at Marshall’s 11-21 record last year, see that 80% of their scoring returning and might expect another tough season. However, just a year before, Kinsey and Taylor were starters and Anochili-Killen, Early and Miladinovic were rotation pieces in Marshall’s 15-7 finish. While Kamdyn Curfman is a different player than Jarrod West, a huge key to Marshall’s success this upcoming year is that D'Antoni can run his system with three capable scoring guards.
While it’s fair to look at Marshall’s move from the C-USA to the Sun Belt as a step down for their mens’ basketball team, teams like Texas State, Georgia State, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and South Alabama are perennially solid teams at the top-half of the conference. In addition to Marshall, the Sun Belt’s additions of Old Dominion (five tournament appearances in the last twenty years) and James Madison (a combined 28-21 record in both of Mark Byington’s seasons) bolster the conference’s overall depth. When the preseason rankings come in, expect Marshall to be somewhere in the top-third.
OOC games as of 6/24/22
12/6 v Morehead State
12/10 @ Robert Morris
12/11 v Ohio
TBD vs Akron, Toledo, Coppin State, Tennessee Tech, Chicago State
TBD @ UNC Greensboro
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